Opening Remarks

Hello everyone, welcome to "AI Stock Chat." I'm your content editor, Pei-Yu. Today is Wednesday, July 22, 2026. In this episode, we're going to predict the market trends for the next trading day, Thursday, July 23, 2026, focusing on the Taiwan stock market (TAIEX) and key individual stocks. Although US stocks and chip stocks staged a major comeback last night, our AI model is throwing cold water on Thursday's TAIEX. Everyone, buckle up and don't rush in to catch a falling knife!

Today's Market Forecast

Our "next-day" and "short-term" forecasts for the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) on the next trading day, Thursday, July 23, 2026, are as follows:

Market Sentiment in Plain English: Although US stocks staged a major rebound last night and TSMC ADR also rose, our AI remains bearish on the broader market for Thursday, July 23. The main reason is that foreign institutional investors hold over 78,000 short contracts in futures, which remains an extremely bearish warning signal. Although the market might open slightly higher on Thursday morning due to the strong overnight performance of US markets, everyone must be careful—this could very well be a bull trap. If the market opens high and slides lower as foreign capital takes the opportunity to dump shares, the index could head straight toward the 41,000+ range. Looking at the short-term one-week horizon, selling pressure in the semiconductor sector triggered by ultra-low-priced Chinese AI models means the overall trend remains conservative. We recommend that on this critical trading day of Thursday, you wait and see if foreign short positions are covered before making any moves.

Current Global Market Status

Here is a summary of the latest global market conditions. This section provides current data only and does not represent a predicted direction:

Audio Summary Highlights: To quickly highlight the key points: US stocks and the TAIEX futures night session performed exceptionally well last night. In particular, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 5%, and TAIEX futures rose 1.32% overnight. While this bullish momentum gives the market some breathing room, whether Taiwan stocks can withstand selling pressure at these highs depends on actual performance after Thursday's opening. Don't celebrate too early.

AI Predictions for Key Stocks

The following are the AI prediction data for key stocks over the next 5 trading days starting from Thursday, July 23, 2026. We have filtered out ETF data that deviates significantly from underlying constituent valuations to ensure professional rigor and logical consistency:

Audio Summary Highlights:

• TSMC (2330): Currently consolidating sideways in the short term. Although there has been some overselling, the downward momentum has not fully stopped. We recommend staying on the sidelines on Thursday.
• MediaTek (2454): The AI predicts a bullish direction over the next five days, with a target range of NT$4,585toNT4,585\; to\; NT$5,087. It is one of the few stocks showing strengthening technical indicators.
• Foxconn (2317): Showing range-bound consolidation. Short-term volatility will feel like a roller coaster, so pay close attention to potential short-selling pressure from foreign capital.
• Chunghwa Telecom (2412): Treading water in the short term. While it has strong defensive qualities, indicators are already overheated. Do not rush to chase highs on Thursday.

Strategic Stock Selection Radar

Please note that the following stocks are selected through quantitative strategies. This is a "strategic screen" rather than individual stock buy/sell predictions. Please conduct your own independent evaluation:

Audio Summary Highlights: In today's stock selection radar, the construction stocks Hung Poo (2536) and Farglory (5522) have seen a significant increase in trading volume recently, with technical indicators showing signs of strengthening. However, Farglory's bias ratio (deviation rate) is relatively high, so watch out for the risks of chasing highs. In addition, Leshi Green Energy (1529) is undervalued and its technical chart shows a hammer pattern and bullish divergence, making it worth adding to your watchlist.

Recent Prediction Accuracy Review

We always face our data honestly without inflating the numbers. Our recent directional accuracy for the broader market and individual stocks is as follows:

• Market · Next-Day: Directional accuracy 10.0% (20 predictions, 2 hits, average error 1.69%)
• Market · Short-Term: Directional accuracy 5.9% (17 predictions, 1 hit, average error 3.21%)
• Stocks · Short-Term: Directional accuracy 13.9% (36 predictions, 5 hits, average error 5.18%)
• Stocks · 20-Day: Directional accuracy 25.0% (16 predictions, 4 hits, average error 10.19%)

This reflects how the market has recently been disrupted by foreign short positions and international geopolitical situations, making volatility extremely difficult to predict.

Below is a review of settled stock predictions (Predicted Direction vs. Actual Outcome):

• Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (00735) (Prediction Date: 2026-07-13): Predicted Bearish, Outcome: PARTIAL, Actual Return: -9.08%
• Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050) (Prediction Date: 2026-07-13): Predicted Bullish, Outcome: MISS, Actual Return: -6.42%
• TSMC (2330) (Prediction Date: 2026-07-13): Predicted Neutral, Outcome: MISS, Actual Return: -4.92%
• Fubon FTSE Vietnam (00885) (Prediction Date: 2026-07-13): Predicted Neutral, Outcome: MISS, Actual Return: -2.77%
• TSMC (2330) (Prediction Date: 2026-07-09): Predicted Neutral, Outcome: MISS, Actual Return: -5.18%
• Fubon FTSE Vietnam (00885) (Prediction Date: 2026-07-09): Predicted Neutral, Outcome: MISS, Actual Return: -3.34%

Disclaimer

This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data and is for research reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please make your own judgments and assume all risks.