Intro
Hey everyone, Ticker here! Today (7/28), the Taiwan stock market was closed for Tuesday, but US markets and Taiwan Index Futures night sessions certainly weren't sleeping. Ready for the market battle on Wednesday, 2026-07-29? Today, the AI model flashed a bearish signal as high as 72%. The night session has already tanked by nearly 700 points, putting massive pressure on Wednesday's cash market open to play catch-up on the downside. Everyone needs to brace themselves. Let's dive right in and break down the upcoming market trends!
Today's Market Forecast
Our service only forecasts the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX). Below is the forecast data for the next trading day, Wednesday, 2026-07-29, and the coming week:
| Horizon | Current Price | Forecast Direction | Target Range | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next-Day (7/29) | 43634.19 | Bearish | 42368.69~43397.61 | 72.0% |
| Short-Term (5-Day) | 43634.19 | Bearish | 40778.92~43079.66 | 72.0% |
⚠️ A quick honest disclaimer from Ticker: All data in this post is generated by AI model forecasts and is absolutely not investment advice! Investing involves risks of both gains and losses. Please think independently and take full responsibility for your own trades.
Ticker's Plain-Spoken Market Breakdown
Let's speak plainly: the Taiwan stock market previously plummeted nearly 1,200 points, breaking straight through the quarterly line (60MA). Foreign institutional short positions in futures have accumulated to a historic high of nearly 80,000 contracts, coupled with the ongoing weakness in US semiconductor stocks.
The most critical thing for the open on Wednesday, 2026-07-29 is to see if the Taiwan Index Futures night session closing price around 43,172 points can hold. The AI predicts a high probability that the cash market will open with a gap down to catch up with the decline. Looking at the coming week, the overall market remains bearish, with a potential slide toward the 40,000-point threshold (40,778.92). This is mainly because the market is starting to question the ROI of tech giants, combined with this week being the peak of earnings calls, making the sentiment highly conservative. However, do not blindly chase shorts during a crash, or you might get slapped by a subsequent convergence rebound between futures and cash markets!
Global Market Status
Below is the current global market status, reflecting objective market conditions only, with no AI forecast components:
| Index | Close | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Index Futures Night (TXF) | 43172 | -1.61% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 52210.08 | 0.51% |
| S&P 500 Index (GSPC) | 7413.18 | 0.02% |
| Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) | 24932.08 | -0.18% |
| Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 11554.88 | -2.23% |
AI Forecasts for Key Assets
AI forecasts for key stocks over the 5 trading days starting from Wednesday, 2026-07-29:
| Stock | Direction | Target Range | Confidence | Technical Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050) | Neutral | 97.87~105.03 | 50.0% | KD=SELL, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL |
| Fubon FTSE Vietnam (00885) | Bearish | 16.91~17.32 | 55.0% | KD=BUY, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=BUY, Bollinger=SELL |
| Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (00735) | Neutral | 92.08~103.72 | 64.0% | KD=BUY, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL |
| TSMC (2330) | Bearish | 2206.01~2321.2 | 50.0% | KD=SELL, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL |
| MediaTek (2454) | Bullish | 4585.48~5087.38 | 56.0% | KD=SELL, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL |
| Foxconn (2317) | Neutral | 259.16~284.84 | 55.0% | KD=SELL, MA=BUY, MACD=BUY, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=BUY |
| Chunghwa Telecom (2412) | Neutral | 144.12~148.88 | 69.0% | KD=SELL, MA=BUY, MACD=BUY, RSI=BUY, Bollinger=SELL |
Ticker's Roast & Commentary
- Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050): 🚨 Bug Alert! The TAIEX is already at 43,000 points, yet the AI's predicted range for 0050 is 97.87~105.03 TWD? This is clearly a model glitch in handling high-point data. Take it with a grain of salt and don't take it seriously!
- Fubon FTSE Vietnam (00885): Bearish in the short term. Although it has already corrected deeply, market panic persists, and the stock price might bottom out a bit further.
- Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (00735): Tending toward consolidation. The two major South Korean chip giants are about to release earnings, so expect the stock price to fluctuate wildly within this range.
- TSMC (2330): AI is bearish; current valuation is on the expensive side. With the US Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging, it faces heavy pressure to gap down and catch up on Wednesday.
- MediaTek (2454): AI is surprisingly bullish against the trend! Although the valuation is high, support is expected between 4585.48 and 5087.38. Keep an eye on its resilience.
- Foxconn (2317): Consolidation predicted. It's going to be a rollercoaster ride of ups and downs in the short term. Beginners must watch out for the pressure of heavy short selling by foreign institutional investors.
- Chunghwa Telecom (2412): Predicted to run in place. A defensive stock, but note that the indicators are already "too hot." Don't rush to chase highs here!
Strategic Stock Selection Radar
⚠️ Reiterating: The following is a strategy list filtered based on quantitative indicators, not stock buy/sell predictions, and there are no target price forecasts! (Note: Stocks with incomplete data or no clear signals have been excluded.)
| Stock | Overall Score | Institutional Score | P/E Ratio | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hung Poo (2536) | 84 | 100 | 6.53 | fair |
| Leshi Green Energy (1529) | 79 | 100 | 20.31 | cheap |
| Farglory (5522) | 79 | 100 | 8.69 | cheap |
| Hon Chuan (9939) | 76 | 100 | 14.69 | fair |
- Hung Poo (2536): Trading volume surged by 2.48x, showing a daily bullish engulfing pattern. Momentum is strengthening, but the Williams %R indicates it is slightly overbought in the short term.
- Leshi Green Energy (1529): A hammer pattern has appeared, and MACD shows a bullish divergence, suggesting a potential rebound opportunity.
- Farglory (5522): Trading volume skyrocketed by 3.98x, showing extremely strong momentum. However, with RSI at 74 and a 20-day bias rate of +12.64%, chasing highs carries extreme risk.
- Hon Chuan (9939): The 5-day MA crossed above the 20-day MA (golden cross), indicating strengthening momentum, but watch out for short-term overbought conditions as well.
Recent Forecast Accuracy Review
Alright, time for the brutal truth. Ticker promised "honesty and transparency," and we never sugarcoat the data. The AI's recent forecasting performance has been downright painful to watch. Let's lay out the real numbers for everyone to see:
- TAIEX · Next-Day: Directional accuracy 20.83% (5/24 hit, average error 1.71%)
- TAIEX · Short-Term: Directional accuracy 10.0% (2/20 hit, average error 3.17%)
- Stocks · Short-Term: Directional accuracy 15.0% (6/40 hit, average error 4.85%)
- Stocks · 20-Day: Directional accuracy 30.0% (6/20 hit, average error 9.13%)
This accuracy is so bad I almost want to hold a moment of silence for the AI! So, this proves once again: this is truly just a probability model. Do not treat it as gospel and follow it blindly!
Settled Stock Forecast Review (Predicted Direction vs. Actual Outcome)
- 2330 TSMC (Predicted on 2026-07-20): Predicted "Neutral" ➔ MISS (Actual return +1.29%)
- 0050 Yuanta Taiwan 50 (Predicted on 2026-07-20): Predicted "Neutral" ➔ MISS (Actual return +2.27%)
- 00735 Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (Predicted on 2026-07-20): Predicted "Bullish" ➔ HIT (Actual return +4.54%)
- 00885 Fubon FTSE Vietnam (Predicted on 2026-07-20): Predicted "Neutral" ➔ MISS (Actual return -2.74%)
- 00735 Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (Predicted on 2026-07-13): Predicted "Bearish" ➔ PARTIAL (Actual return -9.08%)
Disclaimer
This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data. It is for research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk. Investors should evaluate carefully, make independent judgments, and assume all trading risks.
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