--- title: "📈 AI Stock Chat - 2026-07-22 | US stocks rebound strongly, but Taiex is wary at high levels; be cautious of pump-and-dump on 07-23!" description: "Hello everyone, welcome to \"AI Stock Chat\", I'm your content editor, Pei-yu. Today is Wednesday, July 22, 2026. In this episode, we are going to predict the trends for the next trading day, Thursday, July 23, 2026, for the Taiwan stock market index and key stocks. Although US stocks and chip stocks staged a major comeback last night, our AI model has poured cold water on Thursday's Taiwan stock market. Everyone, buckle your seatbelts and don't rush to catch a falling knife!" canonical_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-07-22" author: "Mark Ku" author_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku" site: "Mark Ku's Tech Notes" date_published: "2026-07-22 10:00:00 +0800" category: "AI Stock Market Chit-Chat" tags: ["ai-stock", "podcast", "台股預測", "台股", "AI預測", "台積電", "聯發科", "鴻海", "中華電"] language: "en" license: "CC BY 4.0" license_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" attribution: "when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original" --- # 📈 AI Stock Chat - 2026-07-22 | US stocks rebound strongly, but Taiex is wary at high levels; be cautious of pump-and-dump on 07-23! ## Opening Remarks Hello everyone, welcome to "AI Stock Chat." I'm your content editor, Pei-Yu. Today is Wednesday, July 22, 2026. In this episode, we're going to predict the market trends for the next trading day, Thursday, July 23, 2026, focusing on the Taiwan stock market (TAIEX) and key individual stocks. Although US stocks and chip stocks staged a major comeback last night, our AI model is throwing cold water on Thursday's TAIEX. Everyone, buckle up and don't rush in to catch a falling knife! ## Today's Market Forecast
Current Price 44232.87Next-DayBearish · 41218.09~42203.38 · Confidence 65%Short-TermBearish · 39695.74~41898.91 · Confidence 62%
TAIEX AI Prediction Range (Next-Day / Short-Term)
Our "next-day" and "short-term" forecasts for the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) on the next trading day, Thursday, July 23, 2026, are as follows: | Horizon | Current Price | Predicted Direction | Target Range | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Next-Day (07-23) | 44232.87 | Bearish | 41218.09~42203.38 | 65.0% | | Short-Term (1 Week) | 44232.87 | Bearish | 39695.74~41898.91 | 62.0% | **Market Sentiment in Plain English:** Although US stocks staged a major rebound last night and TSMC ADR also rose, our AI remains bearish on the broader market for Thursday, July 23. The main reason is that foreign institutional investors hold over 78,000 short contracts in futures, which remains an extremely bearish warning signal. Although the market might open slightly higher on Thursday morning due to the strong overnight performance of US markets, everyone must be careful—this could very well be a bull trap. If the market opens high and slides lower as foreign capital takes the opportunity to dump shares, the index could head straight toward the 41,000+ range. Looking at the short-term one-week horizon, selling pressure in the semiconductor sector triggered by ultra-low-priced Chinese AI models means the overall trend remains conservative. We recommend that on this critical trading day of Thursday, you wait and see if foreign short positions are covered before making any moves. ## Current Global Market Status Here is a summary of the latest global market conditions. This section provides current data only and does not represent a predicted direction: | Index | Close | % Change | | --- | --- | --- | | TAIEX Futures Night Session (TXF) | 44961 | 1.32% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 52224.64 | 0.74% | | S&P 500 Index (GSPC) | 7509.2 | 0.89% | | Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) | 25837.21 | 1.29% | | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 12356.16 | 5.21% | **Audio Summary Highlights:** To quickly highlight the key points: US stocks and the TAIEX futures night session performed exceptionally well last night. In particular, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 5%, and TAIEX futures rose 1.32% overnight. While this bullish momentum gives the market some breathing room, whether Taiwan stocks can withstand selling pressure at these highs depends on actual performance after Thursday's opening. Don't celebrate too early. ## AI Predictions for Key Stocks
Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050)Neutral · Confidence 63%Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (00735)Neutral · Confidence 63%Fubon FTSE Vietnam (00885)Neutral · Confidence 57%TSMC (2330)Neutral · Confidence 50%MediaTek (2454)Bullish · Confidence 56%Foxconn (2317)Neutral · Confidence 55%Chunghwa Telecom (2412)Neutral · Confidence 69%
Target Ranges for Key Stocks (Vertical Line = Current Price, Colored Band = Target Range)
The following are the AI prediction data for key stocks over the next 5 trading days starting from Thursday, July 23, 2026. We have filtered out ETF data that deviates significantly from underlying constituent valuations to ensure professional rigor and logical consistency: | Stock | Direction | Target Range | Confidence | Technical Signals | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TSMC (2330) | Neutral | 2230.45~2409.55 | 50.0% | KD: SELL(68%), MA: SELL(45%), MACD: SELL(39%), RSI: SELL(67%), Bollinger: SELL(40%) | | MediaTek (2454) | Bullish | 4585.48~5087.38 | 56.0% | KD: BUY(69%), MA: SELL(37%), MACD: SELL(31%), RSI: SELL(83%), Bollinger: SELL(32%) | | Foxconn (2317) | Neutral | 259.16~284.84 | 55.0% | KD: BUY(63%), MA: SELL(26%), MACD: SELL(28%), RSI: SELL(80%), Bollinger: SELL(35%) | | Chunghwa Telecom (2412) | Neutral | 144.12~148.88 | 69.0% | KD: BUY(67%), MA: SELL(40%), MACD: SELL(20%), RSI: BUY(100%), Bollinger: SELL(40%) | **Audio Summary Highlights:** - **TSMC (2330)**: Currently consolidating sideways in the short term. Although there has been some overselling, the downward momentum has not fully stopped. We recommend staying on the sidelines on Thursday. - **MediaTek (2454)**: The AI predicts a bullish direction over the next five days, with a target range of NT$4,585 to NT$5,087. It is one of the few stocks showing strengthening technical indicators. - **Foxconn (2317)**: Showing range-bound consolidation. Short-term volatility will feel like a roller coaster, so pay close attention to potential short-selling pressure from foreign capital. - **Chunghwa Telecom (2412)**: Treading water in the short term. While it has strong defensive qualities, indicators are already overheated. Do not rush to chase highs on Thursday. ## Strategic Stock Selection Radar Please note that the following stocks are selected through quantitative strategies. This is a "strategic screen" rather than individual stock buy/sell predictions. Please conduct your own independent evaluation: | Stock | Overall Score | Institutional Flow Score | P/E Ratio | Valuation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hung Poo (2536) | 84 | 100 | 6.53 | Fair | | Leshi Green Energy (1529) | 79 | 100 | 20.31 | Cheap | | Farglory (5522) | 79 | 100 | 8.69 | Cheap | | Globe Union (9934) | 78 | 100 | No Data | No Data | | Hon Chuan (9939) | 76 | 100 | 14.69 | Fair | **Audio Summary Highlights:** In today's stock selection radar, the construction stocks Hung Poo (2536) and Farglory (5522) have seen a significant increase in trading volume recently, with technical indicators showing signs of strengthening. However, Farglory's bias ratio (deviation rate) is relatively high, so watch out for the risks of chasing highs. In addition, Leshi Green Energy (1529) is undervalued and its technical chart shows a hammer pattern and bullish divergence, making it worth adding to your watchlist. ## Recent Prediction Accuracy Review
Market · Next-Day45% (2/20)Market · Short-Term47% (1/17)Stocks · Short-Term22% (5/36)Stocks · 20-Day25% (4/16)
Recent Directional Accuracy (Higher is better; includes settled sample size)
We always face our data honestly without inflating the numbers. Our recent directional accuracy for the broader market and individual stocks is as follows: - Market · Next-Day: Directional accuracy 10.0% (20 predictions, 2 hits, average error 1.69%) - Market · Short-Term: Directional accuracy 5.9% (17 predictions, 1 hit, average error 3.21%) - Stocks · Short-Term: Directional accuracy 13.9% (36 predictions, 5 hits, average error 5.18%) - Stocks · 20-Day: Directional accuracy 25.0% (16 predictions, 4 hits, average error 10.19%) This reflects how the market has recently been disrupted by foreign short positions and international geopolitical situations, making volatility extremely difficult to predict. Below is a review of settled stock predictions (Predicted Direction vs. Actual Outcome): - Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (00735) (Prediction Date: 2026-07-13): Predicted Bearish, Outcome: PARTIAL, Actual Return: -9.08% - Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050) (Prediction Date: 2026-07-13): Predicted Bullish, Outcome: MISS, Actual Return: -6.42% - TSMC (2330) (Prediction Date: 2026-07-13): Predicted Neutral, Outcome: MISS, Actual Return: -4.92% - Fubon FTSE Vietnam (00885) (Prediction Date: 2026-07-13): Predicted Neutral, Outcome: MISS, Actual Return: -2.77% - TSMC (2330) (Prediction Date: 2026-07-09): Predicted Neutral, Outcome: MISS, Actual Return: -5.18% - Fubon FTSE Vietnam (00885) (Prediction Date: 2026-07-09): Predicted Neutral, Outcome: MISS, Actual Return: -3.34% ## Disclaimer This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data and is for research reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please make your own judgments and assume all risks. --- ## About this article and its author Originally published on [Mark Ku's Tech Notes](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-07-22) License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) — when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original ### About the author **[Mark Ku](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku)** — Software Solution Provider - 10+ years senior software engineer, now an AI Builder - Focused on large-platform architecture — North-American e-commerce, AI SaaS subscription billing - Combining AI Agents and automation to build evolvable product foundations ### Free tools built by the author All of these are free to use: - [Free PDF Sign Tool](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/pdf-sign): Online PDF sign tool — draw, type, or upload a signature, then drag, resize, and download. 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