Introduction

Hello everyone! Today is Saturday, July 18, 2026. Although the stock market is closed for the weekend, we still need to do our homework early for the next trading day—Monday, July 20, 2026. In this episode, we will dive deep into the chain reaction triggered by the heavy sell-off in US semiconductor stocks, as well as the highly anticipated TSMC earnings call. What kind of bombshell will it drop on Monday's market? Let's jump right in!

Today's Market Forecast

We are forecasting the market movement for Monday, July 20, 2026. The current price of the TAIEX (weighted index) is 45,624.98. Although the AI model remains bullish for both the next day and the short term, there are strong undercurrents in the market. Here is the detailed forecast data:

Even though the AI forecast points to a bullish direction, sentiment-wise, we should approach Monday's market with a "neutral-to-bearish" cooling-off mindset. US semiconductor stocks tumbled overnight, and the Taiwan Index Futures night session has already taken a hit. The main event on Monday will be the TSMC earnings call at 2:00 PM, which will directly dictate whether the TAIEX will surge or plummet. Although over 900 stocks advanced in the previous trading session, foreign institutional investors have built up massive short positions in the futures market. Do not rush to chase highs right at Monday's market open—tread carefully to avoid getting burned.

Global Market Status

Let's look at the latest global market status. This section provides objective data up to the current moment and does not represent future forecasts:

The data clearly shows that all four major US indices and the SOX ended in the red, with the Taiwan Index Futures night session plunging 2.06% in tandem. This will undoubtedly put immense pressure on Monday's opening bell for Taiwan stocks.

AI Forecasts for Key Assets

Below are the AI forecasts for key stocks over the next 5 trading days starting Monday, July 20, 2026:

Stock Commentary & Quantitative Logic Breakdown:

• 00735 Cathay Taiwan & Korea Tech: Short-term outlook is bearish. Tech stocks in Taiwan, the US, and South Korea have just faced a chain-reaction sell-off. Although they are oversold and due for a rebound, short-term selling pressure has not yet been fully digested.
• 00885 Fubon Vietnam: Short-term trend leans toward consolidation. The main concern is weak buying momentum; the stock currently lacks the strength to push upward.
• 2330 TSMC: Short-term consolidation expected. The stock price is fluctuating near historical highs and currently digesting selling pressure. Ahead of the earnings call, it lacks the momentum to make a decisive upward push.
• 0050 Yuanta Taiwan 50: Short-term bullish. Listeners might wonder: why does the AI predict a bullish trend when the technical signals are almost entirely "SELL"? This is because technical indicators like KD and RSI are lagging indicators, reflecting the overbought conditions and consolidation of the past few days. However, the AI model integrates expectations of highly positive guidance from TSMC's earnings call on Monday afternoon. It suggests that institutional flows and event-driven momentum will propel 0050 to challenge the 428 TWD level and beyond.
• 2454 MediaTek: Bullish bias over the next 5 trading days. Similarly, although technical indicators show "SELL" due to the recent short-term pullback, the AI's deep analysis of fundamentals and supply chain positioning suggests a catch-up rally opportunity in the near term, with a target range of 4,585.48 to 5,087.38 TWD.
• 2317 Foxconn: The outlook is consolidation. Expect a rollercoaster-like whipsaw in the short term. Novice investors should pay close attention to whether the broader market is facing heavy short-selling pressure from foreign institutional investors.
• 2412 Chunghwa Telecom: Short-term consolidation (treading water). Note that indicators are already running hot—avoid chasing highs here!

Strategy Stock Selection Radar

The following are strategy screening results, not buy/sell recommendations for individual stocks. Investors should exercise caution:

Among these screened stocks, Hung Poo (2536) has shown volume expansion and a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating strengthening momentum. Farglory (5522) saw its volume surge nearly fourfold, but with its RSI reaching 74, investors should watch out for pullback risks due to short-term overextension. E.SUN FHC (2884) is currently seeing its moving averages converge, offering no clear buy/sell signals for now; we recommend staying on the sidelines.

Recent Forecast Accuracy Review

We always adhere to the principle of honesty and transparency—no sugarcoating. Here is our actual directional accuracy in recent periods:

• TAIEX, Next-Day Directional Accuracy: 11.1% (Hit 2/18, average error 1.51%)
• TAIEX, Short-Term Directional Accuracy: 7.1% (Hit 1/14, average error 3.29%)
• Stocks, Short-Term Directional Accuracy: 20.8% (Hit 5/24, average error 5.15%)
• Stocks, 20-Day Directional Accuracy: 0.0% (Hit 0/1, average error 14.18%)

Settled Stock Forecast Review (Predicted Direction vs. Actual Outcome):

• 0050 (Forecasted on 2026-06-29): Forecast Bearish | Outcome MISS | Actual Return +3.64%
• 00885 (Forecasted on 2026-06-29): Forecast Neutral | Outcome HIT | Actual Return +0.74%
• 2330 (Forecasted on 2026-06-29): Forecast Neutral | Outcome MISS | Actual Return +3.80%
• 00735 (Forecasted on 2026-06-29): Forecast Bearish | Outcome MISS | Actual Return +0.54%
• 0050 (Forecasted on 2026-06-23): Forecast Bearish | Outcome HIT | Actual Return -2.09%
• 00735 (Forecasted on 2026-06-23): Forecast Bearish | Outcome MISS | Actual Return +0.13%

As seen in the review, AI forecasts are not infallible, especially during strong bull markets or when unexpected events disrupt trends, which can easily lead to "MISS" outcomes. Therefore, please treat these forecast data points as auxiliary references and always maintain strict risk management.

Disclaimer

This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data. It is for research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please make your own judgments and assume all responsibility.