Opening Remarks

Hi everyone, I'm Mu-Yen! How is your Monday going? To kick things off today, we're going to talk about tomorrow's market outlook for the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Following last Friday's staggering, record-breaking volume, the AI model's prediction for tomorrow leans conservatively bearish. How should you play defense? Make sure to read through to the end of today's post!

Today's Market Forecast

This service only forecasts the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX), offering two horizons: "Next-Day" and "Short-Term". Below is the AI model's forecast data for the market on Tuesday, 2026-08-18:

I'd like to remind everyone that although the spot market hit a historic high last Friday, it did so on a staggering, record-breaking volume of NT$1.06 trillion, ultimately opening high and closing lower in the red. This is a warning sign for the bulls. Additionally, foreign institutional investors have accumulated up to 85,000 short contracts in futures, and US stocks along with TSMC ADRs have pulled back. Consequently, the AI model's forecast for Tuesday, 2026-08-18, leans conservatively bearish, with a confidence level of around 61%.

Tomorrow's spot market is highly likely to open with a downward gap of around 200+ points. The most critical focus tomorrow will be whether the "backwardation" (negative spread) between futures and spot narrows, and whether the broader market can hold the key support level of 45,518 points from August 12. Looking at the short-term trend for the week, it remains bearish. Although we have the Automation & Robot Show and heavyweight earnings calls this week, the short-term outlook is weighed down by the US strictly auditing transshipment risks (which placed Taiwan on the watchlist) and cooling global consumption. However, if Foxconn's (Hon Hai) earnings call delivers blockbuster positive surprises, the market might find its footing earlier than expected.

Global Market Status

Here is a summary of the latest actual closing data from international markets and the night session. This section presents objective market facts only and does not represent the AI model's forecasts:

AI Forecasts for Key Stocks

This section features actual AI stock forecasts with target prices and confidence levels.

(Today, the AI model is taking a highly cautious stance on individual stocks, so no stocks met the criteria. For tomorrow's trading, we recommend adopting a wait-and-see approach and remaining patient.)

Strategy Stock Selection Radar

The following are the results of our strategy screening, not individual stock buy/sell forecasts. This section uses quantitative system indicators to screen for bullish/bearish setups, serving as a reference for your homework, and is by no means subjective trading advice.

• Uni-President (1216): Overall score of 74, with today's bull/bear indicator at 0.0, indicating a neutral/wait-and-see quantitative stance. Moving averages are currently tangled with no clear direction, the stock price has broken below the monthly line (medium-term weakness), and the KD indicator is pointing downward. We recommend staying on the sidelines for now.
• Wan Hai (2615): Overall score of 72, with today's bull/bear indicator at -0.9, indicating a neutral/wait-and-see quantitative stance. Although trading volume has surged by 2.3x and momentum is strengthening, the stock has already run up significantly. Williams %R indicates overbought conditions, and MACD is showing bearish divergence at high levels. Be cautious of the risks of chasing highs here.
• Foxconn (2317): Overall score of 69, with today's bull/bear indicator at 4.0, indicating a bullish quantitative bias. Although the current valuation is expensive, the technicals show signs of stabilization. MACD, RSI, and price-volume are all quietly showing "bullish divergence at low levels," making this one worth watching closely.
• ASUS (2357): Overall score of 68, with today's bull/bear indicator at -3.4, indicating a bearish quantitative bias. Although trading volume expanded significantly by 3.19x, the short-term rally has been overextended, pushing the RSI to 80 (overbought territory). Furthermore, the KD indicator has formed a death cross at high levels, signaling potential weakness ahead.
• Wistron (3231): Overall score of 68, with today's bull/bear indicator at -2.5, indicating a bearish quantitative bias. Technically, the KD indicator has formed a death cross at high levels, and the daily candlestick chart shows a bearish pattern, suggesting relatively high short-term pullback pressure.

Recent Forecast Accuracy Review

At "AI Stock Chat," we value "honesty and transparency" above all else. No matter how good or bad our accuracy is, we report the facts exactly as they are—no sugarcoating!

• TAIEX · Next-Day: Directional accuracy 44.4% (correct direction 4/9 times); range hit 3/9 times; average error 1.05%
• TAIEX · Short-Term: Directional accuracy 50.0% (correct direction 3/6 times); range hit 1/6 times; average error 2.29%

To be honest, the AI model's recent performance on the broader market hasn't been ideal, with next-day directional accuracy at just 44.4% and short-term directional accuracy at exactly 50%. Navigating the market during high-volume, volatile shakeouts is incredibly challenging. I highly recommend that everyone exercise strict risk management when trading on Tuesday, 2026-08-18, and avoid over-leveraging!

Disclaimer

This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data and is for research reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please make your own judgments and assume all associated risks.