--- title: "📈 AI Stock Chat, 2026-08-17 | Massive volume opens high and closes low, Tuesday's key defense at 45,000!" description: "Hi everyone, I'm Muyan! How is everyone's Monday going? To start today, we're going to talk about tomorrow's Taiwan stock market trend for Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Following last Friday's staggering volume explosion, the AI model's prediction for tomorrow is leaning conservatively bearish. How exactly should we defend? Make sure to listen to today's episode all the way through!" canonical_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-08-17" author: "Mark Ku" author_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku" site: "Mark Ku's Tech Notes" date_published: "2026-08-17 10:00:00 +0800" category: "AI Stock Market Chit-Chat" tags: ["ai-stock", "podcast", "台股預測", "台股", "AI預測", "鴻海2317", "華碩2357", "萬海2615", "統一1216", "緯創3231"] language: "en" license: "CC BY 4.0" license_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" attribution: "when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original" --- # 📈 AI Stock Chat, 2026-08-17 | Massive volume opens high and closes low, Tuesday's key defense at 45,000! ## Opening Remarks Hi everyone, I'm Mu-Yen! How is your Monday going? To kick things off today, we're going to talk about tomorrow's market outlook for the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Following last Friday's staggering, record-breaking volume, the AI model's prediction for tomorrow leans conservatively bearish. How should you play defense? Make sure to read through to the end of today's post! ## Today's Market Forecast
Current Price 45811.01Next-DayBearish · 45161.70~45681.15 · Confidence 61%Short-TermBearish · 44359.11~45520.63 · Confidence 61%
TAIEX AI Forecast Range (Next-Day / Short-Term)
This service only forecasts the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX), offering two horizons: "Next-Day" and "Short-Term". Below is the AI model's forecast data for the market on Tuesday, 2026-08-18: | Horizon | Current Price | Forecast Direction | Target Range | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Next-Day (08-18) | 45811.01 | Bearish | 45161.70 ~ 45681.15 | 61.0% | | Short-Term (1 Week) | 45811.01 | Bearish | 44359.11 ~ 45520.63 | 61.0% | I'd like to remind everyone that although the spot market hit a historic high last Friday, it did so on a staggering, record-breaking volume of NT$1.06 trillion, ultimately opening high and closing lower in the red. This is a warning sign for the bulls. Additionally, foreign institutional investors have accumulated up to 85,000 short contracts in futures, and US stocks along with TSMC ADRs have pulled back. Consequently, the AI model's forecast for Tuesday, 2026-08-18, leans conservatively bearish, with a confidence level of around 61%. Tomorrow's spot market is highly likely to open with a downward gap of around 200+ points. The most critical focus tomorrow will be whether the "backwardation" (negative spread) between futures and spot narrows, and whether the broader market can hold the key support level of 45,518 points from August 12. Looking at the short-term trend for the week, it remains bearish. Although we have the Automation & Robot Show and heavyweight earnings calls this week, the short-term outlook is weighed down by the US strictly auditing transshipment risks (which placed Taiwan on the watchlist) and cooling global consumption. However, if Foxconn's (Hon Hai) earnings call delivers blockbuster positive surprises, the market might find its footing earlier than expected. ## Global Market Status Here is a summary of the latest actual closing data from international markets and the night session. This section presents objective market facts only and does not represent the AI model's forecasts: | Index | Close | % Change | | --- | --- | --- | | TAIEX Futures Night Session (TXF) | 45727 | -0.19% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 53732.41 | -0.2% | | S&P 500 Index (GSPC) | 7785.76 | -0.17% | | Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) | 26729.16 | -0.28% | | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 12417.05 | -0.31% | ## AI Forecasts for Key Stocks This section features actual AI stock forecasts with target prices and confidence levels. | Stock | Direction | Target Range | Confidence | Technical Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | None | - | - | - | - | (Today, the AI model is taking a highly cautious stance on individual stocks, so no stocks met the criteria. For tomorrow's trading, we recommend adopting a wait-and-see approach and remaining patient.) ## Strategy Stock Selection Radar The following are the results of our strategy screening, **not individual stock buy/sell forecasts**. This section uses quantitative system indicators to screen for bullish/bearish setups, serving as a reference for your homework, and is by no means subjective trading advice. | Stock | Overall Score | Institutional Flow Score | P/E Ratio | Valuation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Uni-President (1216) | 74 | 100 | 18.31 | cheap | | Wan Hai (2615) | 72 | 88 | 6.22 | fair | | Foxconn (2317) | 69 | 63 | 17.11 | expensive | | ASUS (2357) | 68 | 100 | 14.56 | fair | | Wistron (3231) | 68 | 100 | , | , | * **Uni-President (1216)**: Overall score of 74, with today's bull/bear indicator at 0.0, indicating a **neutral/wait-and-see quantitative stance**. Moving averages are currently tangled with no clear direction, the stock price has broken below the monthly line (medium-term weakness), and the KD indicator is pointing downward. We recommend staying on the sidelines for now. * **Wan Hai (2615)**: Overall score of 72, with today's bull/bear indicator at -0.9, indicating a **neutral/wait-and-see quantitative stance**. Although trading volume has surged by 2.3x and momentum is strengthening, the stock has already run up significantly. Williams %R indicates overbought conditions, and MACD is showing bearish divergence at high levels. Be cautious of the risks of chasing highs here. * **Foxconn (2317)**: Overall score of 69, with today's bull/bear indicator at 4.0, indicating a **bullish quantitative bias**. Although the current valuation is expensive, the technicals show signs of stabilization. MACD, RSI, and price-volume are all quietly showing "bullish divergence at low levels," making this one worth watching closely. * **ASUS (2357)**: Overall score of 68, with today's bull/bear indicator at -3.4, indicating a **bearish quantitative bias**. Although trading volume expanded significantly by 3.19x, the short-term rally has been overextended, pushing the RSI to 80 (overbought territory). Furthermore, the KD indicator has formed a death cross at high levels, signaling potential weakness ahead. * **Wistron (3231)**: Overall score of 68, with today's bull/bear indicator at -2.5, indicating a **bearish quantitative bias**. Technically, the KD indicator has formed a death cross at high levels, and the daily candlestick chart shows a bearish pattern, suggesting relatively high short-term pullback pressure. ## Recent Forecast Accuracy Review
TAIEX·Next-Day44% (4/9)TAIEX·Short-Term50% (3/6)
Recent Directional Accuracy (higher is better; includes settled sample size)
At "AI Stock Chat," we value "honesty and transparency" above all else. No matter how good or bad our accuracy is, we report the facts exactly as they are—no sugarcoating! * **TAIEX · Next-Day**: Directional accuracy 44.4% (correct direction 4/9 times); range hit 3/9 times; average error 1.05% * **TAIEX · Short-Term**: Directional accuracy 50.0% (correct direction 3/6 times); range hit 1/6 times; average error 2.29% To be honest, the AI model's recent performance on the broader market hasn't been ideal, with next-day directional accuracy at just 44.4% and short-term directional accuracy at exactly 50%. Navigating the market during high-volume, volatile shakeouts is incredibly challenging. I highly recommend that everyone exercise strict risk management when trading on Tuesday, 2026-08-18, and avoid over-leveraging! ## Disclaimer This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data and is for research reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please make your own judgments and assume all associated risks. --- ## About this article and its author Originally published on [Mark Ku's Tech Notes](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-08-17) License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) — when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original ### About the author **[Mark Ku](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku)** — Software Solution Provider - 10+ years senior software engineer, now an AI Builder - Focused on large-platform architecture — North-American e-commerce, AI SaaS subscription billing - Combining AI Agents and automation to build evolvable product foundations ### Free tools built by the author All of these are free to use: - [Free PDF Sign Tool](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/pdf-sign): Online PDF sign tool — draw, type, or upload a signature, then drag, resize, and download. 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