Introduction
Hi everyone, this is Muyan! It's another brand new day. How are your stock holdings holding up? Today, we're going to dive into the latest post-market data from 2026-08-12 and plan ahead by forecasting the trends for the TAIEX (Taiwan stock market index) and popular individual stocks for the next trading day, Thursday, 2026-08-13. Today, foreign institutional investors have laid out a massive net of short positions in the futures market. Can the Taiwan stock market hold its ground tomorrow? Let's find out together with Muyan!
Today's Market Forecast
First, let's look directly at the AI model's quantitative forecasts for the Taiwan stock market index (TAIEX) for Thursday, 2026-08-13, and the coming week.
| Horizon | Current Price | Forecast Direction | Target Range | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Day (08-13) | 45120.72 | FLAT Neutral | 44546.68 ~ 45310.84 | 56.0% |
| Short-term (1 Week) | 45120.72 | FLAT Neutral | 44074.40 ~ 45783.12 | 58.0% |
Muyan's Plain English Market Analysis: According to the AI forecast, the market trend for tomorrow, Thursday, 2026-08-13, is highly likely to be a "tug-of-war between bulls and bears, resulting in neutral consolidation," with a next-day forecast confidence level of about 56.0%.
Although TSMC previously delivered stellar revenue results and the TAIEX futures night session closed slightly in the green—indicating some underlying support in the market—the three major US indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq) all closed down. Furthermore, foreign institutional investors still hold a massive volume of short positions in TAIEX futures (approaching 90,000 contracts). This is like a sword of Damocles hanging over the Taiwan stock market, which could trigger selling pressure to force a lower settlement at any time. Therefore, after the market opens tomorrow on 2026-08-13, the most critical thing to watch is the support level below. The index is expected to fluctuate between 44,546.68 and 45,310.84. Please do not blindly chase the rally if the market opens higher!
Global Market Overview
Let's take a look at the latest performance of international stock markets and the night session. This section consists of objective historical data and does not contain any AI predictions!
| Index | Close | Change % |
|---|---|---|
| TAIEX Futures Night Session (TXF) | 45279.00 | 0.43% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 53791.85 | -0.34% |
| S&P 500 Index (GSPC) | 7728.20 | -0.32% |
| Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) | 26445.45 | -0.60% |
| Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 12098.47 | 0.87% |
US markets showed divergent trends. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq was weak, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index bucked the trend to rise by 0.87%. For Taiwan's electronics and semiconductor sectors, this offers a bit of breathing room amidst the gloom of heavy foreign short positions.
AI Forecasts for Key Stocks
There are no individual stock AI forecasts that meet the criteria for this trading day.
Strategic Stock Selection Radar
A quick reminder from Muyan: The following stocks are filtered through our systematic strategy and represent "objective data compilation from technical and institutional flow perspectives." They are not directional buy/sell forecasts for individual stocks, so please do not treat them as direct trading signals!
| Stock | Overall Score | Institutional Flow Score | P/E Ratio | Valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSMC (2330) | 75 | 100 | 32.47 | expensive |
| Foxconn (2317) | 74 | 75 | 19.18 | expensive |
| Yuanta Financial (2885) | 72 | 100 | - | - |
| Evergreen (2603) | 71 | 100 | 9.38 | expensive |
| Wan Hai (2615) | 70 | 75 | 8.04 | expensive |
Plain English Strategy Commentary:
- TSMC (2330): Overall score of 75. Currently, the short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages are in a bullish alignment, with the stock price firmly above the monthly moving average, and the KD indicator is also bullish. However, while technical indicators remain bullish, investors should watch out for the risk of high-level volatility due to its relatively high valuation (Expensive).
- Foxconn (2317): Overall score of 74. The technicals show a strengthening momentum signal (CCI 128.41), and MACD, RSI, and volume-price all exhibit bullish divergence, indicating that the downward trend is stabilizing. However, note that Williams %R has reached the overbought zone at -6.17, so be cautious of the risks of chasing highs in the short term.
- Yuanta Financial (2885): Overall score of 72. Due to the nature of financial stocks, standard P/E ratio and valuation metrics do not apply here, hence the blank entries. Currently, the moving averages are in a bullish alignment, the stock price is above the monthly moving average, and both KD and RSI indicators show a bullish pattern. It scored a perfect 100 on institutional flows.
- Evergreen (2603): Overall score of 71. Trading volume has significantly expanded by 1.56 times, indicating returning market interest and strengthening momentum. However, Williams %R indicates overbought conditions, and a bearish MACD divergence has appeared, suggesting that the short-term rally may be starting to lose steam.
- Wan Hai (2615): Overall score of 70. Trading volume expanded by 1.7 times, with momentum strengthening accordingly (CCI 123.17). Similarly, keep in mind that Williams %R is in the overbought zone, so caution is advised when chasing highs.
Review of Recent Forecast Accuracy
At "AI Stock Chat," we value honesty and transparency above all else. We report our accuracy rates exactly as they are, whether good or bad, without any sugarcoating!
- Market · Next-Day Forecast: Directional accuracy 33.3% (correct direction 2/6 times); range hit rate 1/6 times; average error 1.14%
- Market · Short-term Forecast: Directional accuracy 50.0% (correct direction 1/2 times); range hit rate 0/2 times; average error 2.11%
To be honest, our recent next-day market forecast accuracy is only 33.3%, which is not very ideal. This also proves once again that when the market is caught between massive foreign short positions and volatile US stocks, there are simply too many variables. The AI model is merely an auxiliary reference, so everyone must be extra cautious in their trading!
Disclaimer
This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data and is for research reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please make your own judgments and assume all responsibility.
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