Opening

Two days before new sanctions were set to take effect, Trump suddenly signed a waiver. In a moment, I'll tell you how Zelensky and members of Congress responded. Today we'll also look at whether the Fed really held steady at its October meeting, and the latest track of Typhoon Champi, which has strengthened into a Category 4 storm heading straight for Guam. Mass protests and arson also broke out in the streets of France yesterday. I'm Muyan, here to help you make sense of today's world.

Today's Global Headlines

1. Trump waives sanctions on Russia, Zelensky calls it "a mistake"

• What happened: Two days before new sanctions were due to take effect, Trump signed an executive order waiving all Russia-related provisions in the bill named after the late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, including tariffs of up to 500% on Russian goods and tariffs of up to 100% on the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas. Ukrainian President Zelensky called the decision a mistake, while Republican Senator Thom Tillis described the move as extremely irresponsible.
• Why it matters: The bill was designed to penalize buyers who keep purchasing Russian oil and gas. The waiver effectively eases economic pressure on Russia's energy exports, and opinions differ on whether this will weaken negotiating leverage against Russia.
• Taiwan's perspective: International oil and gas buyers and shipping insurers will need to reprice political risk accordingly. Since Taiwan relies almost entirely on energy imports, oil and electricity costs are directly affected by this chain.
• Source: CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/17/trump-waives-russia-related-sanctions-tariffs-before-they-take-effect-.html)

2. Fed widely expected to hold steady in October, but Warsh could be a wild card

• What happened: Markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at its October meeting, but CNBC analysis notes that Fed Governor Kevin Warsh's stance could surprise markets. US CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year in September, and the rebound in inflation has reignited rate-hike expectations. According to CNBC, Fed Governor Waller said that if the data unfolds as expected, he anticipates further rate hikes, though not necessarily "at every consecutive meeting."
• Why it matters: US Treasury yields and rate-hike expectations remain a key variable in stock market valuations. If the October meeting brings an unexpected hawkish shift, market volatility could amplify.
• Taiwan's perspective: Rate-hike expectations are tied to the New Taiwan Dollar exchange rate and the valuation of Taiwan's AI heavyweight stocks, and they also affect mortgage and corporate borrowing costs.
• Source: CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/kevin-warsh-fed-october-rate-hike-interest-rates-markets.html)

3. China's Q3 economic growth estimated at 4.4%, falling short of official target

• What happened: Economists estimate China's GDP grew 4.4% year-over-year in the third quarter (July to September), only slightly above the previous quarter and below the government's annual target. Exports and AI-related industries performed strongly, but a continued slump in real estate and household consumption offset some of that growth momentum.
• Why it matters: Weak domestic demand and a soft property market could dampen demand for raw materials and machinery orders, while the AI server-related order shift is moving in the opposite direction, a growth driver pulling against the slowdown.
• Taiwan's perspective: China (including Hong Kong) remains Taiwan's largest export market. Weak domestic demand and the AI order-shift effect are simultaneously pulling at Taiwan's export structure from opposite directions.
• Source: Nikkei Asia (https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/china-s-q3-growth-estimated-below-target-at-4.4-despite-ai-boom)

4. Typhoon Champi strengthens to Category 4, bears down on Guam

• What happened: Typhoon Champi has strengthened into a powerful Category 4 storm, moving west toward Guam at roughly 15 mph. The US National Weather Service and the Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center continue to issue alerts. Typhoon warnings have been issued for Guam and Rota, while tropical storm warnings are in effect for Tinian and Saipan.
• Why it matters: The Mariana Islands sit upstream of typhoon tracks in the western Pacific. Whether Champi continues toward the Philippine Sea after passing Guam remains uncertain in current forecasts.
• Taiwan's perspective: The angle at which the typhoon eventually turns will directly affect risk assessments for the waters southwest of Taiwan and Japan next week.
• Source: ABC News (US) (https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/typhoon-champi-dangerous-category-4-storm-approaches-guam-137344599)

5. Nationwide protests erupt in France, with arson and clashes with police in multiple cities

• What happened: Nationwide protests broke out across France on October 17, with the CGT union claiming 500,000 people took to the streets, a figure organizers later revised upward to over 800,000, driven by anger over soaring inflation and the collapse of public services. More than 130 people were arrested in Paris, city halls in Marseille and Lille were stormed, Hermès and Apple stores in Lille were looted, and the Limoges city hall, built in 1883, was set on fire. According to France 24, the local prefect called it "a disaster for cultural heritage."
• Why it matters: The protests reflect growing public anger over inflation and deteriorating public services, but the large-scale arson and clashes have also raised concerns about the demonstrations spiraling out of control, with opinions divided on where responsibility lies.
• Taiwan's perspective: France is an important trade and tourism market for Taiwan within the EU. Social unrest and strikes could disrupt shipping schedules and travel itineraries.
• Source: France 24 (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20261017-french-protesters-clash-with-police-during-nationwide-demonstrations)

6. Amazon deforestation in Brazil falls to a record low

• What happened: Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) reported that deforestation in the Amazon rainforest covered 3,335 square kilometers over the 12 months ending in July this year, down roughly 42% from the previous year, the lowest level since records began in 1988, surpassing the previous record low of 4,571 square kilometers set between 2011 and 2012. Cumulative deforestation has dropped 71.2% over four years, a sharp decline from the peak of nearly 30,000 square kilometers in the mid-1990s.
• Why it matters: The data was released just ahead of the second round of the presidential election, which observers see as good news for President Lula as he seeks re-election.
• Taiwan's perspective: The EU's deforestation-free regulation and carbon border mechanism are rewriting supply chain documentation requirements. Taiwanese exporters of food, feed, timber, and paper products will all need to provide proof of origin.
• Source: Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/17/brazils-amazon-deforestation-hits-lowest-level-on-record)

7. Stampede at religious festival in Kolkata, India, kills at least 17

• What happened: A stampede broke out during a Durga Puja religious gathering in Kolkata, eastern India, killing at least 17 people and injuring 25, including a seven-year-old girl among the dead. Local officials said sudden rain at night followed by an announcement triggered panic, causing the crowd waiting outside a tent to surge and fall. According to ABC News (Australia), Indian Prime Minister Modi called the incident "deeply saddening."
• Why it matters: The West Bengal state government has pledged to assist victims' families, but the incident once again highlights the crowd-control risks at large religious gatherings.
• Taiwan's perspective: Crowd-control risks at major religious and festival events raise the same questions as safety reviews for Taiwan's Mazu pilgrimage processions, New Year's countdown events, and concerts.
• Source: ABC News (Australia) (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-18/india-stampede-kolkata-hindu-festival/107280156)

Closing

The one thing most worth remembering today is that the bill meant to sanction buyers of Russian oil and gas has been put on hold, and whether this shifts the risk calculus for global energy prices is worth watching closely over the coming days. The angle at which Typhoon Champi eventually turns after passing Guam, and whether the Fed really does hold steady at its October meeting, are both key things to keep an eye on in the latter half of this week. I'm Muyan, see you tomorrow.