--- title: "AI Stock Chat, 2026-09-24: Final Check Before the Long Weekend, Model Turns Bearish for 9/29" description: "Hi everyone, I'm Muyan, welcome to \"AI Stock Chat\". Today is Thursday, September 24, 2026, but Taiwan's stock market is heading into a long holiday: Mid-Autumn Festival on 9/25 (Fri), the weekend on 9/26-27, and Teachers' Day on 9/28 (Mon), so trading stays closed through next Monday. That means the next trading day our model is looking at is Tuesday, 9/29. In this episode, I'll walk you through the model's directional call for 9/29, tonight's global market conditions, and the model's recent accuracy performance, and yes, when it comes to accuracy, I'll be giving you the honest picture in a bit." canonical_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-09-24" author: "Mark Ku" author_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku" site: "Mark Ku's Tech Notes" date_published: "2026-09-24T02:00:00.000Z" category: "AI Stock Chat" tags: ["ai-stock", "podcast", "台股預測", "台股", "AI預測", "中秋連假", "台積電", "2330"] language: "en" license: "CC BY 4.0" license_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" attribution: "when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original" --- # AI Stock Chat, 2026-09-24: Final Check Before the Long Weekend, Model Turns Bearish for 9/29 > **TL;DR** — AI Stock Chat forecasts Taiwan's TAIEX bearish at 47474.72~48020. ## Opening Hey everyone, I'm Mu Yan, welcome to "AI Stock Chat." Today is Thursday, September 24, 2026, but Taiwan's stock market is about to head into a long holiday: Mid-Autumn Festival on 9/25 (Friday), the weekend on 9/26-9/27, and Teacher's Day on 9/28 (Monday), stretching all the way to next Monday. So the next trading day our model is looking at is 9/29 (Tuesday). In this episode, we'll cover the market direction for 9/29, tonight's global market snapshot, and the model's recent hit rate performance, and yes, when it comes to that hit rate, I'll give you the honest numbers in a bit. ## Today's Index Forecast
Current 48157.29Next DayBearish · 47474.72~48020.78 · Confidence 63%Short TermBearish · 46631.03~47852.04 · Confidence 63%
TAIEX AI Forecast Range (Next Day / Short Term)
AI Stock Chat currently forecasts only the TAIEX (Taiwan Weighted Index), split into two horizons: "Next Day" and "Short Term (about a week)": | Horizon | Current Price | Forecast Direction | Target Range | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Next Day (9/29) | 48157.29 | Bearish | 47474.72~48020.78 | 63.0% | | Short Term (about a week) | 48157.29 | Bearish | 46631.03~47852.04 | 63.0% | Looking at the sentiment report, although the TAIEX closed up 0.75% yesterday (9/23), market breadth was actually skewed toward decliners, with 394 advancing stocks versus 568 declining ones, putting it in a neutral-to-bearish stance. This lines up with the model's bearish call for 9/29. The short-term (about one week) outlook is similarly bearish, also at roughly 63% confidence. A reminder for everyone: the model's recent hit rate has been on the low side, so treat this range as reference only. I'll go through the exact numbers in the hit rate review below. ## Global Market Snapshot Here's the current state of Taiwan Index Futures night session and the four major U.S. indices plus the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. This is a snapshot only, not a forecast: | Index | Close | Change % | | --- | --- | --- | | Taiwan Index Futures Night Session (TXF) | 47909 | -0.83% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 51511.59 | -1.03% | | S&P 500 (GSPC) | 7706.03 | -0.76% | | Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) | 26936.04 | -0.69% | | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 12534.27 | 0.81% | U.S. markets closed lower across the board last night, with the Dow down over 1%, and both the Nasdaq and S&P also in negative territory, reflecting a more cautious tone toward risk assets. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, however, bucked the trend and closed higher, with semiconductor stocks holding up relatively well. Taiwan Index Futures' night session also dipped slightly by 0.83%, broadly in sync with the mood on Wall Street. ## Strategy Stock Screening Radar The following are results from a strategy screen, not predictions on individual stock performance: | Stock | Composite Score | Institutional Flow Score | P/E Ratio | Valuation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TSMC (2330) | 75 | 100 | 28.98 | Rich | | Novatek (3034) | 75 | 100 | , | , | | Feng Tay (9910) | 72 | 100 | , | , | | CTBC Financial (2891) | 70 | 100 | , | , | | First Financial (2892) | 70 | 100 | , | , | All five stocks scored a perfect institutional flow score today and rank near the top on the composite score. As for P/E ratio and valuation, only TSMC currently has disclosed data. On the technical side, both TSMC and Novatek are showing multiple indicators pointing in inconsistent directions, a sign of mixed signals. Feng Tay's technical indicators, on the other hand, are showing multiple indicators aligned in the same direction. For CTBC Financial and First Financial, moving averages lean bullish but short-term indicators are mixed, so there's no clear consistent signal for now, leaning toward a wait-and-see stance overall. Once again, this is purely a technical description from a strategy screen, not buy or sell advice. ## Recent Forecast Hit Rate Review
Index · Next Day22% (2/9)Index · Short Term17% (1/6)
Recent Directional Hit Rate (higher is more accurate; includes settled sample size)
Let me give you an honest rundown of the recent hit rate: the next-day directional hit rate for the index is 22.2%, correct only 2 out of 9 times, with a full-range hit rate of 0/9. The short-term (about one week) directional hit rate is 16.7%, correct only 1 out of 6 times, with a full-range hit rate of 1/6. Performance over this stretch honestly hasn't been great, so for a bearish call like today's, I'd still encourage you to treat it as a reference point rather than relying on the model alone to make decisions. ## Disclaimer This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data and is provided for research reference only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation of any kind. Neither this site nor the program's producers are a licensed securities investment advisory firm, do not provide analysis targeted at specific individuals, and receive no compensation for this content. 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