--- title: "AI Stock Chat, 2026-09-22: both next-day and short-term signals bullish, but accuracy still lagging behind" description: "Hi everyone, I'm Muyan, welcome to today's AI Stock Chat. In this episode, we're covering the market prediction for 2026-09-23 (Wednesday). This time, the model is bullish on both the next-day and short-term outlook, so the direction is consistent. That said, I'll be honest with you about the recent hit rate, the numbers aren't great, so please judge for yourself after listening." canonical_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-09-22" author: "Mark Ku" author_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku" site: "Mark Ku's Tech Notes" date_published: "2026-09-22 10:00:00 +0800" category: "AI Stock Chat Chit-chat" tags: ["ai-stock", "podcast", "台股預測", "台股", "AI預測", "加權指數", "半導體"] language: "en" license: "CC BY 4.0" license_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" attribution: "when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original" --- # AI Stock Chat, 2026-09-22: both next-day and short-term signals bullish, but accuracy still lagging behind > **TL;DR** — AI Stock Chat forecasts Taiwan TAIEX bullish for both September 23 overnight and short-term horizons, targeting 47854，48395 and 48021，49231 points respectively with 55% confidence each. US equities posted strong overnight gains, Nasdaq +2.26% and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +4.29%, providing tailwind support. However, recent directional hit rates lag significantly, with overnight predictions at 28.6% (2/7) and short-term at 25% (1/4), warranting caution. ## Opening Hey everyone, I'm Muyan, welcome to today's AI Stock Market Chat. In this episode we'll be breaking down the market forecast for Wednesday, September 23, 2026. This time the model is bullish on both the overnight and short-term outlook, so the direction is consistent. That said, I'll be upfront with you: the recent hit rate hasn't been great, so keep that in mind as you listen. ## Today's Market Forecast
Current 47718.84OvernightBullish · 47854.11~48395.19 · Confidence 55%Short-termBullish · 48021.31~49231.21 · Confidence 55%
TAIEX AI Prediction Range (Overnight / Short-term)
| Horizon | Current | Forecast Direction | Target Range | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Overnight | 47718.84 | Bullish | 47854.11~48395.19 | 55.0% | | Short-term | 47718.84 | Bullish | 48021.31~49231.21 | 55.0% | Overall sentiment is actually fairly neutral. The TAIEX rose 1.14% yesterday, with about 493 advancers versus 500 decliners, roughly evenly matched rather than a one-sided rally. The model's confidence levels are only around 55% across the board, which basically means "leaning slightly bullish, but not very convicted." The overnight target range sits roughly between 47854 and 48395 points, while the short-term (one-week) upper bound stretches to around 49231 points, a noticeably wider range. ## Global Market Snapshot | Index | Close | Change % | | --- | --- | --- | | Taiwan Futures Night Session (TXF) | 48781 | +1.51% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 52048.83 | +0.71% | | S&P 500 (GSPC) | 7764.7 | +1.49% | | Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) | 27122.09 | +2.26% | | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 12433.17 | +4.29% | The night session for Taiwan futures closed at 48781, up 1.51%, outpacing the cash market. US stocks closed broadly higher across the board: the Nasdaq gained over 2%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 4.29%, with particularly strong momentum in the semiconductor sector. This sentiment provides a fairly positive tailwind heading into Wednesday's open for Taiwan stocks. Note that this section is purely a market status update, not a forecast. ## Strategy Stock Screener The following are strategy screening results, not individual stock buy/sell predictions. | Stock | Composite Score | Chip Score | P/E Ratio | Valuation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yang Ming Marine Transport (2609) | 70 | 100 | 13.76 | Expensive | | Realtek (2379) | 69 | 100 | 26.83 | Expensive | | Chunghwa Telecom (2412) | 69 | 100 | , | , | | MediaTek (2454) | 68 | 88 | 82.74 | Expensive | | Novatek (3034) | 68 | 75 | , | , | These stocks all have solid chip scores, but Yang Ming shows a bearish KD death cross signal at overbought levels, MediaTek's buying volume looks somewhat insufficient, and Chunghwa Telecom and Novatek both show mixed signals, with momentum strengthening on one hand and overbought warnings on the other. This leans more toward a wait-and-see stance rather than a call to buy in. ## Recent Forecast Hit Rate Review
Index · Overnight29% (2/7)Index · Short-term25% (1/4)
Recent Directional Hit Rate (higher is better; includes settled sample size)
Honestly, the recent hit rate hasn't been great. Out of the last 7 overnight index predictions, only 2 were correct, a directional hit rate of 28.6%, and the target range missed entirely all 7 times. For the short-term (one-week) predictions, only 1 out of 4 was correct, a 25.0% hit rate, with an average error stretching to 3.34%. These numbers are here for a reason: they're a reminder that just because the model is bullish now doesn't mean the market will actually rise tomorrow. For reference only. ## Disclaimer This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data and is for research reference only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation of any kind. Neither this site nor the program's producers are licensed securities investment advisors, do not provide analysis to specific individuals, and receive no compensation of any kind for this content. Investing involves risk; please exercise your own judgment and bear your own responsibility. --- ## About this article and its author Originally published on [Mark Ku's Tech Notes](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-09-22) License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) — when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original ### About the author **[Mark Ku](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku)** — 226 Network Co. · Software engineer - 10+ years as a software engineer, now running 226 Network - Built North-American e-commerce and AI SaaS subscription billing - Systems, websites, LINE bots and AI automation for small companies ### Free tools built by the author All of these are free to use: - [Free PDF Sign Tool](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/pdf-sign): Online PDF sign tool — draw, type, or upload a signature, then drag, resize, and download. 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