--- title: "📈 AI Stock Chat: 2026-09-17｜US Stocks Drag Down, Taiwan Market Expected to Keep Testing Lows on Friday" description: "Hi, I'm Muyan, welcome to today's \"AI Stock Chat Hour\". Today is Thursday, September 17th, and we're looking at the next trading day, Friday, September 18th, for the Taiwan stock market. The AI model is leaning bearish this time with fairly high confidence, let's dive into the numbers." canonical_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-09-17" author: "Mark Ku" author_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku" site: "Mark Ku's Tech Notes" date_published: "2026-09-17 10:00:00 +0800" category: "AI Stock Chat" tags: ["ai-stock", "podcast", "台股預測", "台股", "AI預測", "聯發科", "中華電"] language: "en" license: "CC BY 4.0" license_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" attribution: "when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original" --- # 📈 AI Stock Chat: 2026-09-17｜US Stocks Drag Down, Taiwan Market Expected to Keep Testing Lows on Friday > **TL;DR** — AI Stock Chat forecasts Taiwan's TAIEX (Sept 18) as bearish with 69% confidence, targeting 44,866，45,382 points from a 45,848. ## Opening Hi, I'm Muyan, and welcome to today's episode of "AI Stock Chat." Today is Thursday, September 17th, and we're looking ahead to the next trading day, Friday, September 18th, for Taiwan's stock market. The AI model is leaning bearish this time, with fairly solid confidence, so let's dive into what the numbers say. ## Today's Index Forecast
Current 45848.90Next DayBearish · 44866.43~45382.48 · Confidence 69%Short-termBearish · 44069.08~45223.01 · Confidence 69%
TAIEX AI Forecast Range (Next Day / Short-term)
This service only forecasts the TAIEX (Taiwan Weighted Index), using the September 16 closing price of 45,848.9 points as the baseline, and looks ahead across two time horizons: | Horizon | Current Price | Forecast Direction | Target Range | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Next Day (9/18) | 45,848.9 | Bearish | 44,866.43~45,382.48 | 69.0% | | Short-term (about one week) | 45,848.9 | Bearish | 44,069.08~45,223.01 | 69.0% | Interestingly, market breadth on September 16 was actually positive, with more advancers than decliners (742 up, 214 down), so the overall mood wasn't bad. But the AI model is focused on the risk heading into September 18, and it has landed on a bearish call with 69% confidence. The short-term (one-week) view holds the same stance, suggesting the model believes this pullback won't be a one-day affair, so investors should keep that in mind. ## Global Market Snapshot Let's first look at the global market snapshot from last night through today. These are current figures only, no forecasts involved: | Index | Close | Change % | | --- | --- | --- | | Taiwan Futures Night Session (TXF) | 46,382 | +0.7% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 51,461.9 | -1.21% | | S&P 500 (GSPC) | 7,551.81 | -0.45% | | NASDAQ Composite (IXIC) | 25,978.42 | -0.01% | | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 11,246.11 | +0.63% | All three major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow taking the biggest hit, down more than 1%. Semiconductor stocks, however, held up relatively well, with the SOX bucking the trend to close higher. Taiwan's futures night session also edged up 0.7%, somewhat decoupled from the weakness in U.S. equities, a divergence worth keeping an eye on. ## Key Stock AI Forecasts The service doesn't currently offer a stock-level AI forecast list for today, so we'll skip this section and move straight to the strategy screening radar below. ## Strategy Stock Screening Radar The following are strategy screening results, not individual stock buy/sell forecasts, provided purely as technical and institutional flow reference: | Stock | Composite Score | Flow Score | P/E Ratio | Valuation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MediaTek (2454) | 72 | 100 | 74.81 | Expensive | | Novatek (3034) | 71 | 100 | , | , | | Quanta (2382) | 69 | 100 | 14.84 | Cheap | | Chunghwa Telecom (2412) | 68 | 100 | 28.19 | Expensive | | Realtek (2379) | 65 | 100 | 26.11 | Expensive | A few names are worth noting: Chunghwa Telecom has a perfect flow score, but its RSI of 77 and a KD death cross at high levels both signal caution against chasing further gains after a strong run. Realtek is showing a bullish MACD divergence at the bottom, suggesting its decline may be stabilizing. Both MediaTek and Quanta were flagged for volume-price or MACD bearish divergence at the top, indicating buying momentum is starting to lag. Overall, none of the five stocks show a clear buy or sell signal, leaning more toward a wait-and-see stance. ## Recent Forecast Accuracy Review
Index · Next Day25% (1/4)
Recent Directional Hit Rate (higher is better; includes settled sample count)
Honestly, the index's next-day forecast performance has been underwhelming lately: the directional hit rate is only 25% (1 correct out of 4), and the target range missed entirely, 0 out of 4, with an average error of 0.38%. These numbers are a reminder that the AI model's directional calls aren't very reliable yet. Even though confidence is marked at 69% this time, it's worth approaching this call with a degree of caution. ## Disclaimer This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data. It is provided for research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please exercise independent judgment and bear responsibility for your own decisions. --- ## About this article and its author Originally published on [Mark Ku's Tech Notes](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-09-17) License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) — when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original ### About the author **[Mark Ku](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku)** — Software Solution Provider - 10+ years senior software engineer, now an AI Builder - Focused on large-platform architecture — North-American e-commerce, AI SaaS subscription billing - Combining AI Agents and automation to build evolvable product foundations ### Free tools built by the author All of these are free to use: - [Free PDF Sign Tool](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/pdf-sign): Online PDF sign tool — draw, type, or upload a signature, then drag, resize, and download. Everything runs in your browser; nothing is uploaded. - [VS Code Refactory](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/refactory): Refactory is a VS Code refactoring extension: 34 actions plus a 37-rule code-smell inspection layer with a Code Health dashboard, across 18 languages, backed by 534 tests. It learns your repo's conventions: where interfaces live, where DI is registered, whether 'use client' belongs. It ranks files by git churn × complexity so you know what to fix first, and hands any smell to the Claude Code already on your machine. Free to use, and your source never leaves your computer. - [DB-Kit Database Manager](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/db-kit): DB-Kit is a lightweight, cross-platform database manager built with Tauri + Rust + React. Manage MySQL, MariaDB, PostgreSQL, SQL Server, Oracle, SQLite, MongoDB, Redis, Kafka, Elasticsearch and RabbitMQ from one consistent interface: passwords encrypted in the OS keychain, SSH tunnels, full CRUD, a visual query builder, stacked multi-statement result sets, cross-connection data transfer, schema & data compare with sync SQL and schema snapshots, Excel / CSV import & export, visualized execution plans, ER diagrams, scheduled backups, SQL stress testing with p50–p99 latency percentiles, a 15-rule SQL review engine, Review & Run (AI review plus per-statement backups and an auto-generated rollback script), Kafka message browsing with monitoring & alerts, a bilingual UI (Traditional Chinese / English), a built-in AI assistant (a local CLI or any Anthropic / OpenAI-compatible API; natural-language SQL, AI review and tuning advice) and the dbk CLI. Free and open source (MIT), with installers for Windows, macOS and Linux. - [VS Code Super Mermaid](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/super-mermaid): Super Mermaid is a VS Code extension for beautiful Mermaid diagrams out of the box: auto-colored live preview, mouse pan & zoom, high-res PNG / SVG export, 21 templates and multiple themes. Free and open source (MIT). - [React Super Mermaid](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/react-super-mermaid): react-super-mermaid is an open-source React component library: render beautiful Mermaid diagrams with a single , with built-in colorful / sketch themes, pan & zoom, in-diagram search, and high-res SVG / PNG export. Lightweight, SSR-safe, fully typed. Free and open source (MIT). - [Jira / Confluence Super Mermaid](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/jira-super-mermaid): An Atlassian Forge app: write Mermaid syntax directly inside a Jira issue or a Confluence page and get flowcharts, sequence diagrams, state machines and Gantt charts. 11 diagram types, SVG / PNG export, light and dark themes, full CJK support. Runs on Atlassian: your diagrams live in your own site and the app calls no third-party service. Free, coming soon to the Atlassian Marketplace. - [Mermaid Live Preview](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/mermaid-preview): Write Mermaid in your browser, see it render instantly, and share the whole diagram as a single link. No sign-up, nothing uploaded to a server, and mermaid.live share links work as-is. - [React Intl Phone Number](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/react-intl-phone-number): react-intl-phone-number is an open-source React component: framework-agnostic and antd-free, with E.164 in/out, a searchable flag / country-code dropdown, configurable validation levels (strict / mobile-strict / loose), themeable CSS, and i18n — phone logic powered by google-libphonenumber. Lightweight and fully typed. Free and open source (MIT). - [Uptime Kuma Cluster](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/uptime-kuma-cluster): Turn single-node Uptime Kuma into a highly available cluster: OpenResty + Lua smart load balancing, shared MariaDB state, health checks and automatic failover, plus cluster-management REST APIs. One Docker Compose command to start. Free and open source (MIT). - [AI Podcast Cut](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/ai-podcast-cut): Drop in a recording and it removes fillers and stutters, levels loudness segment by segment, and sends a second agent to review every cut. Cut points snap to word boundaries and zero crossings, every splice gets a fade, and sentence-end breaths are preserved. Desktop app for Windows, macOS and Linux. MIT licensed; the Windows installer bundles ffmpeg. - [open-pos restaurant POS](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/open-pos): One computer and one receipt printer is enough to open the shop. Your data lives on your own disk, no subscription, no lock-in, MIT licensed. Money is integer New Taiwan dollars with tax split by the statutory formula, so sales + tax always equals the total. Printing goes straight over ESC/POS on TCP 9100, with no vendor driver. Tauri + Rust + SQLite desktop app, v1.0 in development. - [Special Education](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/education): Learning materials crafted for special education students ### Daily podcasts - [Mark's Tech Insights — Daily AI News](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/category/tech-news): Daily curated AI and tech trends. Catch the latest developments via audio summaries — covering AI applications, software architecture, DevOps, and engineering practice. — RSS: https://blog.markkulab.net/feed.xml - [AI股市蝦聊](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/category/ai-stock-chat): Every trading day, an AI-analyzed take on the Taiwan stock market, delivered as a two-host conversation covering the session and the next-day outlook. — RSS: https://blog.markkulab.net/ai-stock-chat/feed.xml - [開源好物週報](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/category/open-source-weekly): A weekly two-host pick of free open-source tools surfaced from real Hacker News, GitHub, and Reddit buzz — what pain they solve and the fastest way to get started. — RSS: https://blog.markkulab.net/open-source-weekly/feed.xml - [AI 運動週報](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/category/sports-weekly): Two hosts talk NBA, MLB, CPBL and Taiwanese sports three times a week — scores, records and the stories behind them, from a Taiwanese fan perspective. — RSS: https://blog.markkulab.net/sports-weekly/feed.xml ### Deals - [NordVPN](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/nordvpn): The world's leading VPN, independently audited - [PremLogin](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/premlogin): Subscription sharing for streaming and AI seats，Promo code：markku666 ### Newsletter [Subscribe to the newsletter](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/subscribe) — Be the first to know about new posts. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.