--- title: "📈 AI Stock Chat, 2026-08-25 | Quarterly line lost, foreign capital builds historic short positions, Taiwan stocks face a severe test on August 26!" description: "Hi everyone, I'm Muyan! Today's Taiwan stock market really gave everyone a scare, with the index plunging straight below the 45,000-point mark and even losing the quarterly moving average. Looking ahead to tomorrow's (Wednesday, 2026-08-26) trend, the AI model has given a very clear but somewhat heavy prediction. Today, let's face it honestly and talk about how we should respond next!" canonical_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-08-25" author: "Mark Ku" author_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku" site: "Mark Ku's Tech Notes" date_published: "2026-08-25 10:00:00 +0800" category: "AI Stock Market Chit-Chat" tags: ["ai-stock", "podcast", "台股預測", "台股", "AI預測", "合庫金", "華南金", "中租KY", "萬海", "台灣大"] language: "en" license: "CC BY 4.0" license_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" attribution: "when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original" --- # 📈 AI Stock Chat, 2026-08-25 | Quarterly line lost, foreign capital builds historic short positions, Taiwan stocks face a severe test on August 26! ## Opening Remarks Hi everyone, I'm Muyan! Today's Taiwan stock market really made everyone break a sweat, with the TAIEX plunging straight through the 45,000-point mark and even losing the quarterly moving average (MA). Looking ahead to tomorrow's market movement on Wednesday, 2026-08-26, the AI model has delivered a very clear yet somewhat heavy prediction. Today, let's face it honestly and talk about how we should prepare and respond! ## Today's Market Forecast

TAIEX AI Forecast Range (Next-Day / Short-Term)

The "AI Stock Chat" service only forecasts the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX). Below are the forecast data for tomorrow, Wednesday, 2026-08-26, and the coming week: | Horizon | Current Price | Forecast Direction | Target Range | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Next-Day (08-26) | 44762.32 | Bearish | 44127.87~44635.43 | 75.0% | | Short-Term (1 Week) | 44762.32 | Bearish | 43343.66~44478.59 | 75.0% | I have to say, the AI's stance this time is incredibly clear. Whether for tomorrow (8/26) or the short term, it has flashed a "Bearish" red light across the board, with confidence reaching as high as 75%. This is primarily driven by the heavy sell-off in US semiconductor stocks, coupled with Nvidia's upcoming earnings report keeping the market in a cautious, wait-and-see mode. Most shockingly, foreign institutional investors have built up a historic short position of over 80,000 contracts in the futures market! The most critical thing to watch at tomorrow's (8/26) market open is whether the TAIEX will open extremely low, directly reflecting the nearly 700-point discount in futures. I want to remind everyone here: if it does open extremely low, do not blindly panic-sell. Stay calm and patiently wait for a stabilization signal—that is the best course of action. ## Global Market Status Below is the latest closing status of major global indices. Please note that this section only presents the "current status" and does not include forecasts: | Index | Close | % Change | | --- | --- | --- | | TAIEX Futures Night Session (TXF) | 44532 | -0.46% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 53417.16 | 0.26% | | S&P 500 Index (GSPC) | 7652.86 | -0.28% | | Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) | 25980.19 | -0.76% | | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 11423.17 | -2.7% | ## AI Forecasts for Key Stocks Today, the AI model did not generate any individual stock forecasts that met our criteria! Adhering to the principle of honesty and transparency, if there are none, we say so—we absolutely will not make things up or force a narrative. ## Strategic Stock Selection Radar Below are the results of our strategic screening. These tickers are filtered based on quantitative criteria and are **not individual stock buy/sell recommendations**. Please treat this purely as a watch list. | Stock | Overall Score | Chips Score | P/E Ratio | Valuation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TCFHC (5880) | 78 | 100 | 17.86 | Cheap | | Hua Nan Financial (2880) | 71 | 100 | 18.96 | Expensive | | Chailease (5871) | 70 | 100 | , | , | | Wan Hai (2615) | 69 | 100 | 8.55 | Expensive | | Taiwan Mobile (3045) | 69 | 100 | 21.74 | Cheap | Although there are no individual stock forecasts today, the tickers highlighted by our stock selection radar are quite interesting. On the technical side, financial stocks **TCFHC (5880)** and **Hua Nan Financial (2880)** have both shown a low-level KD golden cross and a bullish engulfing pattern. Their chips scores also scored a perfect 100, with TCFHC's valuation still leaning cheap. **Chailease (5871)** has shown stabilization signals with bullish divergence on both MACD and RSI; however, the Williams %R indicates it is slightly overbought in the short term, so keep an eye on that. As for the shipping stock **Wan Hai (2615)**, despite surging trading volume and strong momentum, its RSI has reached a whopping 91, and multiple indicators are warning of "overbought conditions and excessive deviation." The risk of chasing highs here is extremely high! Telecom stock **Taiwan Mobile (3045)** also shows momentum but faces short-term overbought conditions as well. Please exercise caution before entering any positions. ## Recent Forecast Accuracy Review

Recent Directional Accuracy (higher is better; includes settled sample size)

Finally, it's time for our brutal "Honest Reality Check." To be frank, the AI's recent performance on next-day TAIEX forecasts has been disastrous, with a **directional accuracy of 0.0%** (0 out of 1 prediction correct). The target range was also completely missed, with an average error of 1.02%. Since the forecast was wrong, I won't make any excuses to sugarcoat it. This serves as another reminder that AI models are merely auxiliary tools. In an extreme market like this, where foreign institutional short positions are at historic highs, you must never blindly follow the model. Always maintain your own risk management mindset and strictly execute stop-loss and take-profit orders! ## Disclaimer This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data and is for research and reference purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please make your own judgments and assume all responsibility. --- ## About this article and its author Originally published on [Mark Ku's Tech Notes](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-08-25) License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) — when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original ### About the author **[Mark Ku](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku)** — Software Solution Provider - 10+ years senior software engineer, now an AI Builder - Focused on large-platform architecture — North-American e-commerce, AI SaaS subscription billing - Combining AI Agents and automation to build evolvable product foundations ### Free tools built by the author All of these are free to use: - [Free PDF Sign Tool](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/pdf-sign): Online PDF sign tool — draw, type, or upload a signature, then drag, resize, and download. 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