--- title: "📈 AI Stock Chat, 2026-07-20 | US Stocks Plunge; Guard Against a Low Opening and Volatility on July 21!" description: "Hello, good morning everyone, I'm Pei-yu! Today is July 20, 2026, and we're going to predict the trends for the Taiwan stock market and key stocks for the next trading day, Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Last Friday, US tech stocks suffered a collective plunge, and the Taiwan Index Futures night session plummeted as well. Everyone needs to brace themselves for Tuesday's market open. In today's episode, we'll talk about how investors can safely navigate this bearish tsunami!" canonical_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-07-20" author: "Mark Ku" author_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku" site: "Mark Ku's Tech Notes" date_published: "2026-07-20 10:00:00 +0800" category: "AI Stock Market Chit-Chat" tags: ["ai-stock", "podcast", "台股預測", "台股", "AI預測", "台積電2330", "元大台灣50", "聯發科2454", "鴻海2317"] language: "en" license: "CC BY 4.0" license_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" attribution: "when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original" --- # 📈 AI Stock Chat, 2026-07-20 | US Stocks Plunge; Guard Against a Low Opening and Volatility on July 21! ## Introduction Hello, good morning everyone! I'm Peiyu. Today is July 20, 2026, and we are going to forecast the market trends for the next trading day, Tuesday, July 21, 2026, focusing on the Taiwan stock market (TAIEX) and key individual stocks. Last Friday, US tech stocks suffered a collective plunge, and the Taiwan Index Futures night session plummeted in tandem. As the Taiwan stock market opens on Tuesday, everyone needs to brace themselves. In today's post, we'll discuss how investors can safely navigate this wave of bearish tsunami! ## Today's Market Forecast
Current Price 42671.27Next-DayBearish · 44514.01~45402.79 · Confidence 71%Short-TermBearish · 43140.78~45128.14 · Confidence 71%
TAIEX AI Forecast Range (Next-Day / Short-Term)
Our service currently only forecasts the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX). Below are the "Next-Day" and "Short-Term" estimates for Tuesday, July 21, 2026: | Horizon | Current Price | Forecast Direction | Target Range | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Next-Day (7/21) | 42671.27 | Bearish | 44514.01 ~ 45402.79 | 71.0% | | Short-Term (1 Week) | 42671.27 | Bearish | 43140.78 ~ 45128.14 | 71.0% | I would like to specifically point out that although the estimated target range calculated by the quantitative model (44514.01 ~ 45402.79) is significantly higher than the current price, the system still issues a "Bearish" warning in terms of direction. Affected by the heavy losses in US tech stocks and the crash in the Taiwan Index Futures night session, the spot market will face heavy downward pressure when it opens on Tuesday, July 21. Most importantly, because futures have already plummeted in advance, the spot market is highly likely to open with a downward gap. However, since futures have dropped more than spot, do not blindly chase short positions after the opening—be careful not to get burned! ## Global Market Overview Below is the latest status of international stock markets and the futures night session. This section provides data only and does not contain forecasts: | Index | Close | % Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Taiwan Index Futures Night Session (TXF) | 43481 | 2.06% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 52146.42 | -0.77% | | S&P 500 Index (GSPC) | 7457.69 | -1.01% | | Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) | 25520.24 | -1.40% | | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 11673.89 | -1.63% | ## AI Forecasts for Key Assets
TSMC (2330)Neutral · Confidence 50%Fubon Vietnam (00885)Bearish · Confidence 55%Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (00735)Neutral · Confidence 54%Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050)Neutral · Confidence 64%MediaTek (2454)Bullish · Confidence 56%Foxconn (2317)Neutral · Confidence 55%Chunghwa Telecom (2412)Neutral · Confidence 69%
Target Ranges for Key Assets (Vertical Line = Current Price, Colored Band = Target Range)
For the next 5 trading days starting July 21, the AI's trend forecasts for key individual stocks and ETFs are as follows: | Stock | Direction | Target Range | Confidence | Technical Signals | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TSMC (2330) | Neutral | 2230.45 ~ 2409.55 | 50.0% | KD=SELL, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL | | Fubon Vietnam (00885) | Bearish | 17.39 ~ 17.81 | 55.0% | KD=BUY, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=WAIT, Bollinger=SELL | | Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (00735) | Neutral | 88.17 ~ 99.13 | 54.0% | KD=BUY, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL | | Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050) | Neutral | 95.62 ~ 102.78 | 64.0% | KD=SELL, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL | | MediaTek (2454) | Bullish | 4585.48 ~ 5087.38 | 56.0% | KD=BUY, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL | | Foxconn (2317) | Neutral | 259.16 ~ 284.84 | 55.0% | KD=BUY, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL | | Chunghwa Telecom (2412) | Neutral | 144.12 ~ 148.88 | 69.0% | KD=BUY, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=BUY, Bollinger=SELL | **[Special Editorial Note]** The quantitative model has shown an extreme discrepancy in the price ratio between TSMC (2330) and its linked ETF, Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050) (TSMC is overvalued, while 0050 is undervalued). This is a rule-based estimation error due to the system not performing deep contextual analysis. In the actual market, the prices of these two assets are reasonably correlated. Investors must exercise caution when referencing these ranges and rely on the actual market correlation ratios. * **TSMC (2330)**: Expected to consolidate over the next 5 days. Although the earnings call released highly positive news, the short-term outlook is dragged down by the sharp decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. It is recommended to wait and see for now. * **Fubon Vietnam (00885)**: Short-term bearish. It is capped by the 5-day moving average (NT$18.12), making a direct breakout difficult in the short term; it may continue to test lower support levels. * **Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (00735)**: Expected to consolidate over the next 5 trading days. Most technical signals are weak, so a conservative approach within the range is recommended. * **Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050)**: Expected to fluctuate and consolidate near the bottom. Although the recent market crash spooked investors, the drop was so rapid that an oversold rebound could occur at any moment. * **MediaTek (2454)**: Technically, the KD indicator has formed a golden cross. The outlook for the next 5 days is bullish, with a target range of NT$4,585.48 to NT$5,087.38. * **Foxconn (2317)**: Expect a rollercoaster-like volatility and shakeout in the short term. Beginners should pay close attention to whether the overall stock market is facing heavy short-selling pressure from foreign institutional investors. * **Chunghwa Telecom (2412)**: Expected to consolidate sideways in the short term. Note that technical indicators are already overheated; do not rush to chase highs at this level. ## Strategic Stock Selection Radar Below are the results of our strategic screening, **not individual stock buy/sell recommendations**. We have filtered out market targets worth watching based on institutional fund flows and technical indicators: | Stock | Composite Score | Fund Flow Score | P/E Ratio | Valuation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hung Poo (2536) | 84 | 100 | 6.53 | Fair | | Lishi Green Energy (1529) | 79 | 100 | 20.31 | Cheap | | Farglory (5522) | 79 | 100 | 8.69 | Cheap | | Taichy (4934) | 75 | 100 | 0.00 | Expensive | | Eurocharm-KY (5288) | 75 | 100 | 15.34 | Expensive | * **Hung Poo (2536)**: Trading volume surged by 2.48x, forming a bullish engulfing pattern. Momentum is strengthening, but the Williams %R indicates it has entered the overbought territory. * **Lishi Green Energy (1529)**: Formed a hammer pattern with MACD bullish divergence. Valuation is relatively cheap, and institutional fund flows remain strong. * **Farglory (5522)**: Trading volume surged by 3.98x, showing strong momentum. However, note that the RSI and the 20-day bias (BIAS) are too high, posing a risk of short-term overheating. * **Taichy (4934)**: Trading volume increased by 1.56x. Momentum is strengthening as volume stabilizes, though the current valuation is on the higher side. * **Eurocharm-KY (5288)**: Trading volume surged by 4.57x, showing MACD bullish divergence. However, the short-term bias is as high as 16.57%, so chasing highs is not advised. ## Recent Forecast Accuracy Review
Market · Next-Day42%（2/19）Market · Short-Term40%（1/15）Stocks · Short-Term21%（5/24）Stocks · 20-Day0%（0/1）
Recent Directional Accuracy (Higher is more accurate; includes settled sample size)
Upholding the principles of honesty and transparency, below are our actual forecast statistics to date, with absolutely no exaggeration: * **Market · Next-Day**: Directional Accuracy **10.5%** (Actual hits: 2/19, average error: 1.51%) * **Market · Short-Term**: Directional Accuracy **6.7%** (Actual hits: 1/15, average error: 3.27%) * **Stocks · Short-Term**: Directional Accuracy **20.8%** (Actual hits: 5/24, average error: 5.15%) * **Stocks · 20-Day**: Directional Accuracy **0.0%** (Actual hits: 0/1, average error: 14.18%) **Settled Historical Forecast Review:** * 0050 (Forecasted 2026-06-29): Forecast: Bearish | Result: **MISS** | Actual Return: 3.64% * 00885 (Forecasted 2026-06-29): Forecast: Neutral | Result: **HIT** | Actual Return: 0.74% * 2330 (Forecasted 2026-06-29): Forecast: Neutral | Result: **MISS** | Actual Return: 3.80% * 00735 (Forecasted 2026-06-29): Forecast: Bearish | Result: **MISS** | Actual Return: 0.54% * 2330 (Forecasted 2026-06-23): Forecast: Neutral | Result: **MISS** | Actual Return: -3.21% ## Disclaimer This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data and is for research reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please make your own judgments and assume all responsibilities. --- ## About this article and its author Originally published on [Mark Ku's Tech Notes](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-07-20) License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) — when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original ### About the author **[Mark Ku](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku)** — Software Solution Provider - 10+ years senior software engineer, now an AI Builder - Focused on large-platform architecture — North-American e-commerce, AI SaaS subscription billing - Combining AI Agents and automation to build evolvable product foundations ### Free tools built by the author All of these are free to use: - [Free PDF Sign Tool](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/pdf-sign): Online PDF sign tool — draw, type, or upload a signature, then drag, resize, and download. 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