--- title: "📈 AI Stock Chat, 2026-07-17 | US Semiconductors Plunge, Monday's Market Faces a Tough Defensive Battle" description: "Good morning, dear listeners, I am Peiyu. Today is Friday, July 17, 2026. Today, we are going to plan ahead and forecast the trends for the Taiwan stock market and key individual stocks for the next trading day, Monday, July 20, 2026. Following the heavy losses in US semiconductor stocks and major volatility in the night session, how should we navigate the Taiwan stock market on Monday? We will analyze it all for you today." canonical_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-07-17" author: "Mark Ku" author_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku" site: "Mark Ku's Tech Notes" date_published: "2026-07-17 10:00:00 +0800" category: "AI Stock Chat" tags: ["ai-stock", "podcast", "台股預測", "台股", "AI預測", "台積電2330", "元大台灣50", "聯發科2454", "避險策略"] language: "en" license: "CC BY 4.0" license_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" attribution: "when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original" --- # 📈 AI Stock Chat, 2026-07-17 | US Semiconductors Plunge, Monday's Market Faces a Tough Defensive Battle ## Opening Remarks Good morning, everyone. I'm Peiyu. Today is Friday, July 17, 2026. Today, we are going to plan ahead and predict the market trends for the next trading day, Monday, July 20, 2026, covering both the broader Taiwan stock market and key individual stocks. Following the heavy losses in US semiconductor stocks and the massive volatility in the night session, how should we approach the Taiwan stock market on Monday? We will analyze it all for you today. ## Market Forecast for Today
Current Price 45624.98Next-DayBullish · 45858.98~46768.52 · Confidence 56%Short-TermBullish · 46140.04~48173.84 · Confidence 56%
TAIEX AI Prediction Range (Next-Day / Short-Term)
Our forecast data for the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) on Monday, July 20, 2026, is as follows: | Horizon | Current Price | Predicted Direction | Target Range | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Next-Day | 45624.98 | Bullish | 45858.98~46768.52 | 56.0% | | Short-Term | 45624.98 | Bullish | 45140.04~48173.84 | 56.0% | Although our quantitative model has issued a "bullish" forecast for Monday and the short term based on historical patterns, I must issue a critical risk warning here. Because the Taiwan Index Futures night session plummeted by 2.14% on Friday to close at 44,715 points, there is a massive gap between this and our model's predicted lower limit of 45,858.98 points for Monday's target range. What does this mean? It means that when the market opens on Monday, the spot market will face intense pressure to catch up with the decline, making a gap-down open highly likely. The reason the model remains bullish is mainly because it detected historical patterns where government funds or state-owned banks stepped in to strongly support the market after major drops. Therefore, please do not blindly chase highs on Monday. First, observe whether mysterious buying pressure enters to support the market after a low open, and keep a close eye on the real-time movements of US equity futures. ## Global Market Overview Here is the latest global market status and the closing figures for the four major US indices and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: | Index | Close | Change % | | --- | --- | --- | | Taiwan Index Futures Night Session (TXF) | 44715 | -2.14% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 52552.97 | -0.2% | | S&P 500 Index (GSPC) | 7533.77 | -0.51% | | Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) | 25881.95 | -1.47% | | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 11867.5 | -4.29% | As clearly shown in this data, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.29%, which directly dragged down the Taiwan Index Futures night session and cast a shadow over Taiwan's tech stocks on Monday. ## AI Forecasts for Key Assets
Cathay KRX Taiwan IT ETF (00735)Bearish · Confidence 62%Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF (00885)Neutral · Confidence 50%TSMC (2330)Neutral · Confidence 51%Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050)Bullish · Confidence 53%MediaTek (2454)Bullish · Confidence 56%Foxconn (2317)Neutral · Confidence 55%Chunghwa Telecom (2412)Neutral · Confidence 69%
Key Asset Target Ranges (Vertical Line = Current Price, Colored Band = Target Range)
The following are the AI forecasts for key individual stocks over the next 5 trading days starting from Monday, July 20, 2026: | Stock | Direction | Target Range | Confidence | Technical Signals | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cathay KRX Taiwan IT ETF (00735) | Bearish | 93.81~101.16 | 62.0% | RSI=SELL(75%), Bollinger=SELL(41%) | | Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF (00885) | Neutral | 18.1~18.74 | 50.0% | KD=BUY(25%), MA=BUY(33%) | | TSMC (2330) | Neutral | 2354~2525 | 51.0% | KD=SELL(68%), RSI=SELL(67%) | | Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050) | Bullish | 107.17~111.84 | 53.0% | KD=SELL(58%), RSI=SELL(60%) | | MediaTek (2454) | Bullish | 4585.48~5087.38 | 56.0% | KD=SELL(71%), RSI=SELL(83%) | | Foxconn (2317) | Neutral | 259.16~284.84 | 55.0% | KD=BUY(63%), RSI=SELL(80%) | | Chunghwa Telecom (2412) | Neutral | 144.12~148.88 | 69.0% | KD=BUY(67%), MACD=SELL(20%) | **Peiyu's Professional Commentary & Logical Analysis:** 1. **Cathay KRX Taiwan IT ETF (00735):** Impacted by the chain-reaction sell-off in Taiwan, US, and Korean tech stocks, technical indicators are entirely bearish. Short-term selling pressure will take time to digest. 2. **Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF (00885):** Buying interest is weak, and short-term upward momentum is lacking. The stock is expected to consolidate in place. 3. **TSMC (2330):** Despite stellar fundamentals reported at the earnings call, the stock price is fluctuating near historical highs. Multiple technical signals are showing SELL (such as KD and RSI). In the short term, it is recommended to view this as neutral consolidation to digest high-level selling pressure. 4. **Yuanta Taiwan 50 (0050):** Although the model issued a "bullish" forecast due to TSMC's positive long-term outlook, technical indicators are currently showing overbought SELL signals. Additionally, due to drastic changes in the structure of the Taiwan stock market in 2026, this model has shown discrepancies in ETF price correlation calibration (for instance, TSMC has reached 2,000 TWD, but the estimated range for 0050 remains distorted around the 100 TWD level). This price is for relative strength reference only. Investors must be aware of this model limitation and trade cautiously. 5. **MediaTek (2454):** While the model is bullish under rule-based estimation, technical signals (KD, RSI) are flashing red SELL lights. This is a counter-trend forecast at high levels, presenting extremely high short-term volatility risks. 6. **Foxconn (2317):** Expect rollercoaster-like volatility. Novice investors should pay close attention to short-selling pressure from foreign institutional investors in the futures market. 7. **Chunghwa Telecom (2412):** Technical indicators are running hot. Despite its defensive attributes, do not rush to chase highs at this moment. ## Strategic Stock Selection Radar The following are the results of strategic screening. **These are not buy/sell predictions for individual stocks** but are intended to provide quantitative stock selection insights: | Stock | Composite Score | Institutional Flow Score | P/E Ratio | Valuation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Highwealth Construction (2536) | 84 | 100 | 6.53 | fair | | Lextar Green Energy (1529) | 79 | 100 | 20.31 | cheap | | Farglory Land (5522) | 79 | 100 | 8.69 | cheap | | E.SUN FHC (2884) | 76 | 100 | 15.86 | cheap | | TSEC (4934) | 75 | 100 | 0 | expensive | - **Highwealth Construction (2536):** A bullish engulfing pattern has emerged, with trading volume expanding by 2.48 times, showing a clear signal of strengthening. - **Lextar Green Energy (1529):** A hammer pattern has formed, and MACD shows a bullish divergence, indicating an opportunity for a rebound. - **Farglory Land (5522):** Trading volume expanded by nearly 4 times, but both the Williams %R and RSI indicate overbought conditions, and the bias ratio is too wide. Watch out for a short-term pullback. - **E.SUN FHC (2884):** The composite score is 0, with unclear long/short signals. Moving averages are currently tangled, so it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. - **TSEC (4934):** A volume-price bottom divergence has appeared, with trading volume expanding by 1.56 times, suggesting capital is quietly flowing back in. ## Recent Prediction Accuracy Review
Market·Next-Day44%（2/18）Market·Short-Term43%（1/14）Stocks·Short-Term21%（5/24）Stocks·20-Day0%（0/1）
Recent Directional Accuracy (Higher is more accurate; includes settled sample size)
We always adhere to the principles of honesty and transparency. Due to recent intense market volatility, coupled with extreme events such as chain-reaction circuit breakers and sharp drops in US tech stocks and Asian markets, our AI model's directional accuracy has declined significantly: - Market · Next-Day: Directional Accuracy 44.4% (Average Error 1.51%) - Market · Short-Term: Directional Accuracy 42.9% (Average Error 3.29%) - Stocks · Short-Term: Directional Accuracy 20.8% (Average Error 5.15%) - Stocks · 20-Day: Directional Accuracy 0.0% (Average Error 14.18%) Given the low accuracy recently, I would like to make a "Model Revision Announcement." The system is currently undergoing urgent algorithm optimization targeting "Taiwan Index Futures night session weighting" and the "US-Taiwan-Korea tech stock correlation model." This is to prevent future logical conflicts where the night session plunges but the market forecast remains strongly bullish. During this model adjustment transition period, please make sure to heighten your risk awareness and treat these data points as counter-trend references under extreme market conditions rather than absolute guides. Below is the review of settled stock predictions: - 0050 (2026-06-29): Predicted Bearish, Result MISS, Actual Return 3.64% - 00885 (2026-06-29): Predicted Neutral, Result HIT, Actual Return 0.74% - 2330 (2026-06-29): Predicted Neutral, Result MISS, Actual Return 3.80% - 00735 (2026-06-29): Predicted Bearish, Result MISS, Actual Return 0.54% - 0050 (2026-06-23): Predicted Bearish, Result HIT, Actual Return -2.09% ## Disclaimer This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data and is for research reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please make your own judgments and assume all responsibility. --- ## About this article and its author Originally published on [Mark Ku's Tech Notes](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-07-17) License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) — when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original ### About the author **[Mark Ku](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku)** — Software Solution Provider - 10+ years senior software engineer, now an AI Builder - Focused on large-platform architecture — North-American e-commerce, AI SaaS subscription billing - Combining AI Agents and automation to build evolvable product foundations ### Free tools built by the author All of these are free to use: - [Free PDF Sign Tool](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/pdf-sign): Online PDF sign tool — draw, type, or upload a signature, then drag, resize, and download. 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