--- title: "📈 AI Stock Chat, 2026-07-12 | US Stock rebound vs. NVIDIA bad news, Taiwan Stock 07-13 challenges open-high defense battle!" description: "Hello everyone, and welcome to \"AI Stock Chat.\" Today is Sunday, July 12, 2026. Although the market is closed for the weekend, we have already prepared the Taiwan stock market and key stock forecasts for the next trading day, Monday, July 13, 2026. US stocks saw a retaliatory rebound last weekend; will Taiwan stocks successfully open high and go higher on Monday, or will they face pressure from dividend-ex dividend evaporation? You definitely don't want to miss today's episode!" canonical_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-07-12" author: "Mark Ku" author_url: "https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku" site: "Mark Ku's Tech Notes" date_published: "2026-07-12 10:00:00 +0800" category: "AI Stock Market Chit-Chat" tags: ["ai-stock", "podcast", "台股預測", "台股", "AI預測", "台積電2330", "聯發科2454", "元大台灣50", "鴻海2317"] language: "en" license: "CC BY 4.0" license_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" attribution: "when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original" --- # 📈 AI Stock Chat, 2026-07-12 | US Stock rebound vs. NVIDIA bad news, Taiwan Stock 07-13 challenges open-high defense battle! ## Introduction Hello everyone, welcome to "AI Stock Chat." Today is Sunday, July 12, 2026. Although the market is closed for the weekend, we have already prepared the Taiwan stock market index and key stock predictions for the next trading day, Monday, July 13, 2026. US stocks saw a retaliatory rebound last weekend. Will Taiwan stocks successfully open high and run higher on Monday, or will they face pressure from dividend-excursion value drops? Make sure to listen to the end of today's episode! ## Today's Market Index Prediction
Current Price 45354.61Next DayBullish · 46556.39~47200 · Confidence 75%Short-termBullish · 46200~47800 · Confidence 65%
TAIEX AI Prediction Range (Next Day / Short-term)
Our prediction target for today is the Taiwan stock market index on Monday, July 13, 2026. | Horizon | Current Price | Predicted Direction | Target Range | Confidence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Next Day (07-13) | 45354.61 | Bullish | 46556.39~47200 | 75.0% | | Short-term (1 Week) | 45354.61 | Bullish | 46200~47800 | 65.0% | **Market Index Plain English Interpretation:** Although chip stocks faced volatility the previous day, the latest US night session and chip stocks have rebounded strongly. Coupled with the TAIEX futures night session surging nearly 1.4%, the Taiwan stock market is highly likely to open higher on Monday, 2026-07-13. However, foreign institutional investors hold a record-high volume of short positions in futures, and major companies like MediaTek are going ex-dividend on Monday, which will naturally shave points off the index. Whether the index can hold its ground after opening high is the most critical factor on Monday. We recommend that beginners avoid blindly chasing highs and first observe the defensive strength during the first half-hour of trading. ## Global Market Overview Here is a summary of the global stock markets from the last trading day. This section contains objective data only and does not represent predictions! | Index | Close | Change % | | --- | --- | --- | | Taiwan Index Futures Night Session (TXF) | 46281 | 1.39% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) | 52637.01 | 0.29% | | S&P 500 Index (GSPC) | 7575.39 | 0.42% | | Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) | 26281.61 | 0.29% | | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) | 12967.16 | 0.06% | ## AI Predictions for Key Targets
Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 (0050)Bullish · Confidence 53%Fubon FTSE Vietnam (00885)Neutral · Confidence 51%Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (00735)Bearish · Confidence 58%TSMC (2330)Neutral · Confidence 58%Foxconn (2317)Neutral · Confidence 55%MediaTek (2454)Bullish · Confidence 56%Chunghwa Telecom (2412)Neutral · Confidence 69%
Target Ranges for Key Stocks (Vertical Line = Current Price, Colored Band = Target Range)
For the 5 trading days starting from Monday, 2026-07-13, the AI predictions for key stocks are as follows. Please note that although some targets show multiple SELL signals due to weak technical indicators, the AI has comprehensively considered quantitative factors such as fundamentals, dividend payouts, and institutional positioning ahead of earnings calls to issue bullish or neutral predictions. Investors should pay close attention. | Stock | Direction | Target Range | Confidence | Technical Signals | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 (0050) | Bullish | 106.97~111.63 | 53.0% | KD=SELL, MA=BUY, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL | | Fubon FTSE Vietnam (00885) | Neutral | 18.52~19.16 | 51.0% | KD=BUY, MA=BUY, MACD=BUY, RSI=WAIT, Bollinger=SELL | | Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (00735) | Bearish | 97.16~104.67 | 58.0% | KD=BUY, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL | | TSMC (2330) | Neutral | 2330.33~2499.67 | 58.0% | KD=SELL, MA=BUY, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL | | Foxconn (2317) | Neutral | 259.16~284.84 | 55.0% | KD=BUY, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL | | MediaTek (2454) | Bullish | 4585.48~5087.38 | 56.0% | KD=SELL, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=SELL, Bollinger=SELL | | Chunghwa Telecom (2412) | Neutral | 144.12~148.88 | 69.0% | KD=BUY, MA=SELL, MACD=SELL, RSI=BUY, Bollinger=SELL | **Plain English Commentary:** * **Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 (0050):** Expected to stop falling and rebound in the short term. The most critical things to watch are the dividend announcement on July 10 and buying interest positioning ahead of TSMC's earnings call on July 16. * **Fubon FTSE Vietnam (00885):** Short-term outlook leans toward consolidation. The stock price is stuck near the short-to-medium-term moving averages, with buyers and sellers still in a tug-of-war. * **Cathay Taiwan-Korea Tech (00735):** Short-term bearish. The stock price has just broken below its short-term moving averages, and it is about to experience a natural price drop due to going ex-dividend. * **TSMC (2330):** Short-term outlook is flat. The key focuses are the upcoming revenue release on Monday and the earnings call on Thursday. * **Foxconn (2317):** Expected to fluctuate within a range. Short-term whipsawing is likely, and beginners should watch out for pressure from heavy short-selling by foreign institutional investors. * **MediaTek (2454):** Leaning bullish over the next 5 trading days. Although technical indicators are weak, the AI estimates there is a good chance of post-dividend buying interest stepping in to cover positions. * **Chunghwa Telecom (2412):** Short-term consolidation, moving sideways. Indicators are already overheated, so do not rush to chase highs here! ## Strategic Stock Selection Radar The following are the results of our strategic screening. **These are not buy/sell predictions for individual stocks**, nor do they include target prices or confidence levels. They are provided solely for stock selection reference. | Stock | Composite Score | Institutional Score | P/E Ratio | Valuation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Highwealth (2536) | 84 | 100 | 6.53 | fair | | Systex (6214) | 84 | 100 | 15.04 | cheap | | Lextar (1529) | 79 | 100 | 20.31 | cheap | | Farglory (5522) | 79 | 100 | 8.69 | cheap | | Getac (3005) | 78 | 100 | - | - | **Brief Screening Reasons:** * **Highwealth (2536):** Trading volume surged 2.48 times, showing a bullish engulfing pattern, CCI strengthening, and MACD bullish divergence, though the Williams %R indicates slightly overbought conditions. * **Systex (6214):** Short-term moving averages formed a golden cross, trading volume expanded 2.43 times, and the MACD histogram turned positive, but watch out for potential bearish candlestick patterns. * **Lextar (1529):** Candlestick chart shows a defensive hammer pattern, and the MACD indicator shows signs of strengthening with bullish divergence. * **Farglory (5522):** Trading volume expanded 3.98 times and CCI strengthened, but RSI and the 20-day bias ratio are on the high side, raising concerns about short-term overbought conditions. * **Getac (3005):** Trading volume expanded 1.97 times, market interest has clearly returned, and the CCI indicator shows strengthening momentum. ## Recent Prediction Accuracy Review
Index·Next Day50% (1/14)Index·Short-term30% (0/10)Stocks·Short-term21% (5/24)
Recent Directional Accuracy (Higher is more accurate; includes settled sample size)
In the spirit of transparency, here is the actual performance of our recent predictions, with absolutely no exaggeration or sugarcoating: * **TAIEX Next-Day Directional Accuracy:** 50.0% (1/14 hit, average error 1.34%) * **TAIEX Short-Term Directional Accuracy:** 30.0% (0/10 hit, average error 3.8%) * **Individual Stock Short-Term Directional Accuracy:** 20.8% (5/24 hit, average error 5.15%) **Settled Stock Prediction Review:** * 00885 (Predicted on 2026-06-29): Predicted "Neutral", Result "HIT", Actual Return 0.74% * 0050 (Predicted on 2026-06-23): Predicted "Bearish", Result "HIT", Actual Return -2.09% * 0050 (Predicted on 2026-06-29): Predicted "Bearish", Result "MISS", Actual Return 3.64% * 2330 (Predicted on 2026-06-29): Predicted "Neutral", Result "MISS", Actual Return 3.80% * 00735 (Predicted on 2026-06-29): Predicted "Bearish", Result "MISS", Actual Return 0.54% ## Disclaimer This content is automatically generated by an AI model based on quantitative data and is for research reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please make your own judgments and assume all responsibility. --- ## About this article and its author Originally published on [Mark Ku's Tech Notes](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/ai-stock-chat/ai-stock-chat-2026-07-12) License: [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) — when reusing or quoting, credit the author and link back to the original ### About the author **[Mark Ku](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/author/mark-ku)** — Software Solution Provider - 10+ years senior software engineer, now an AI Builder - Focused on large-platform architecture — North-American e-commerce, AI SaaS subscription billing - Combining AI Agents and automation to build evolvable product foundations ### Free tools built by the author All of these are free to use: - [Free PDF Sign Tool](https://blog.markkulab.net/en/tools/pdf-sign): Online PDF sign tool — draw, type, or upload a signature, then drag, resize, and download. 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